Rajesh Sharma
It may cross 1175.38 at the end of August (15 Bhadra?). The index at this level was in August 31, 2008.
Monday, July 21, 2014
NBL
Rajesh Sharma
Some Info on floor sheet analysis of NBL.
Broker no 56 has sold 4,96,643 kittas of NBL shares that is 78% of total sell transaction, which is 6,39,369 Kittas..
There are multiple buying brokers including no 56.
There are larger transactions up to 50,000 thousand kittas.
Although, fundamental analysis and financial parameters do not support NBL going up, but trading has trend the leader. Moreover, someone's expectation in reaching to management also makes its impact. Glamor if created successfully could play even bigger role.
I am amazed and surprised a bit, but there is a verse in Saskrit, "Mahajano yen gaten pantha" (that is the path to proceed, through which many people are walking).
Broker no 56 has sold 4,96,643 kittas of NBL shares that is 78% of total sell transaction, which is 6,39,369 Kittas..
There are multiple buying brokers including no 56.
There are larger transactions up to 50,000 thousand kittas.
Although, fundamental analysis and financial parameters do not support NBL going up, but trading has trend the leader. Moreover, someone's expectation in reaching to management also makes its impact. Glamor if created successfully could play even bigger role.
I am amazed and surprised a bit, but there is a verse in Saskrit, "Mahajano yen gaten pantha" (that is the path to proceed, through which many people are walking).
Business advisory - 22 July 2014
Rajesh Sharma
Buy carefully. Correction and profit booking AHEAD.
Big commercial banks had some corrections yesterday itself. Let's see, if it happens today accross the board today or it would be partial correction only. There could be two to three short and minor corrections till the market reaches 1175.38 level. From now on, it has to pass some more hurdles like NRB's policy or procedural interference particularly tightening in margin lending, absorption of excess liquidity by NRB, and some more safeguards by Beema Samit.
However, 4th quarter results of companies will be out and it is generally believed that the results would be good, this is high time that investors get motivated to put money in the market as dividend time is close and overall market sentiment is positive, hence the market will move up crossing the difficulties due to a few sandbags at its path ahead.
Hence, it would be better to find out stocks that are yet to pick up. Those stocks which are already up by 20-25% recently may not be good ones to buy as many among them are at temporary saturation level.
Note: Another business advisory will be posted on Sunday only.
Buy carefully. Correction and profit booking AHEAD.
Big commercial banks had some corrections yesterday itself. Let's see, if it happens today accross the board today or it would be partial correction only. There could be two to three short and minor corrections till the market reaches 1175.38 level. From now on, it has to pass some more hurdles like NRB's policy or procedural interference particularly tightening in margin lending, absorption of excess liquidity by NRB, and some more safeguards by Beema Samit.
However, 4th quarter results of companies will be out and it is generally believed that the results would be good, this is high time that investors get motivated to put money in the market as dividend time is close and overall market sentiment is positive, hence the market will move up crossing the difficulties due to a few sandbags at its path ahead.
Hence, it would be better to find out stocks that are yet to pick up. Those stocks which are already up by 20-25% recently may not be good ones to buy as many among them are at temporary saturation level.
Note: Another business advisory will be posted on Sunday only.
Sunday, July 20, 2014
Business Advisory - 21 July 2014
Rajesh Sharma
Today also, the bull may continue and commercial banks and micro finance companies could lead the floor. However, my advice is to be very selective from now on.In bull market, everything sells, including rotten potatoes.
Now, the following is what I feel could be profitable.
1. The development banks are yet to pick up. The increase in this sub index is due to increase in micro finance companies. Hence, studying good companies from this sector could prove rewarding. Those development banks which fall under low price range but are strong financially may go up significantly. For investment, please select "Value companies" and for trade, "glamor companies" could prove beneficial.
2. Many finance companies are still sleeping even in this bull. Please select a few among them and invest or trade.
3. In hydro-power, AHPC, BPCL and CHCL may go up. I have reservation about SHPC. It has turned to be a "glamor company" for now. Those who plan to hold for several years, SHPC good be great but for trading and for short term investment, at this price range it may prove liability. Ridi is another attarction, but may not available as it has also become another "Glamor company". Hence, I think, CHCL may go significantly up this week, AHPC will also move up and there could be slight increase in BPCL price.
4. Yesterday was the day of commercial banks and micro-finance company. I do not see today their increase across the board. But, select companies may jump up. Hence, banking and development bank sub index will move up. Finding out promising companies would be good in these sub sectors.
5. For sell, it is hard to say as we are a collection of fools. We do not sell in bull market and wait for bear market to sell. However, this is the best time to change companies. Selling rotten potatoes and buying best grapes from Martha's vineyard is what we could do now. For them, who has to sell within a short period for other reason than reinvestment, this is a great opportunity.
Rest, all of us are doing our homework, and I believe the ideas shared by friends are just reference. The same applies to this post of mine.
Today also, the bull may continue and commercial banks and micro finance companies could lead the floor. However, my advice is to be very selective from now on.In bull market, everything sells, including rotten potatoes.
Now, the following is what I feel could be profitable.
1. The development banks are yet to pick up. The increase in this sub index is due to increase in micro finance companies. Hence, studying good companies from this sector could prove rewarding. Those development banks which fall under low price range but are strong financially may go up significantly. For investment, please select "Value companies" and for trade, "glamor companies" could prove beneficial.
2. Many finance companies are still sleeping even in this bull. Please select a few among them and invest or trade.
3. In hydro-power, AHPC, BPCL and CHCL may go up. I have reservation about SHPC. It has turned to be a "glamor company" for now. Those who plan to hold for several years, SHPC good be great but for trading and for short term investment, at this price range it may prove liability. Ridi is another attarction, but may not available as it has also become another "Glamor company". Hence, I think, CHCL may go significantly up this week, AHPC will also move up and there could be slight increase in BPCL price.
4. Yesterday was the day of commercial banks and micro-finance company. I do not see today their increase across the board. But, select companies may jump up. Hence, banking and development bank sub index will move up. Finding out promising companies would be good in these sub sectors.
5. For sell, it is hard to say as we are a collection of fools. We do not sell in bull market and wait for bear market to sell. However, this is the best time to change companies. Selling rotten potatoes and buying best grapes from Martha's vineyard is what we could do now. For them, who has to sell within a short period for other reason than reinvestment, this is a great opportunity.
Rest, all of us are doing our homework, and I believe the ideas shared by friends are just reference. The same applies to this post of mine.
CHCL at 2610!
Rajesh Sharma
Greed makes people MURGA. Fear makes people MURGA. The not-so-greedy ones and not-so-fearful ones eat MURGAs tastefully. This is life - merciless. Social Darwinism gets acceleration when the water is muddy.
Greed makes people MURGA. Fear makes people MURGA. The not-so-greedy ones and not-so-fearful ones eat MURGAs tastefully. This is life - merciless. Social Darwinism gets acceleration when the water is muddy.
Saturday, July 19, 2014
Mr. Ghising
Rajesh Sharma
Support Mr. Kulman Ghising. Fight against hydro-mafia. Appreciate agitation of local people in Rashuwa and Sindhupalchowk. Support the agitation.
Support Mr. Kulman Ghising. Fight against hydro-mafia. Appreciate agitation of local people in Rashuwa and Sindhupalchowk. Support the agitation.
Today's business advisory
Rajesh Sharma
1.Banking index may go up. Particularly, the rumor mill may push NBL, ADBL up. NCCB also could be up due to requirement to meet paid up capital. The same factor could take KBL and SBL little up.
2. Good development banks and finance companies also may go up due to similar reasons (rumor, paid up requirements as in 1 above.)
3. Hydropower may go up marginally as CHCL may come down slightly (due to Mr. Ghising's transfer factor), other hydropower companies may go up.
4. Provisions in the NRB monetary policy could be over hyped by rumor mill owners. The push and pull factors there are as mentioned below:
1.Banking index may go up. Particularly, the rumor mill may push NBL, ADBL up. NCCB also could be up due to requirement to meet paid up capital. The same factor could take KBL and SBL little up.
2. Good development banks and finance companies also may go up due to similar reasons (rumor, paid up requirements as in 1 above.)
3. Hydropower may go up marginally as CHCL may come down slightly (due to Mr. Ghising's transfer factor), other hydropower companies may go up.
4. Provisions in the NRB monetary policy could be over hyped by rumor mill owners. The push and pull factors there are as mentioned below:
Push Factors:
1. Hydropower
will have greater priority.
2. Basal
III will be implemented gradually.
3. MFI
networks would be expanded and strengthened.
Pull Factor:
1. Emphasis
on managing liquidity. May increase interest rate.
2. Bringing
provisions on loan and interest rate for margin lending. The tone and basis there
is to making it tight and restrictive.
3. Many
FINGOs may become MFIs creting pressure on existing MFIs.
Some Insignificat Factors that may provide fodder for rumor
1. Asking
BFIs to meet already set paid up capital requirement. Only a few BFIs will be
affected.
2. Expansion
and strengthening of MFIs by overlooking the FINGO factor.
Business advisory: Be informed, do not hurry, no train is leaving the junction, stay calm, see the market during the first hour, see which side the camel sits, take appropriate decision and execute.
MFIs and FINGOs
Rajesh Sharma
Now, the policy of converting Financial Intermediary NGOs (FINGOs) into "D" class MFIs has been formalized. There is good news for MFIs as their expansion has been encouraged in the policy, but also when the FINGOs (31 in February 2014, http://www.financialnepal.com/news/print_it/1949) convert themselves into "D" class MFIs, their number will be increased suddenly that will create pressure on the existing ones.
Hence, we should have full picture before reaching to any conclusion.
Yes, there is one good opportunity. Some among us could convert ourselves as promoter of a MFI by contacting and investing in a running FINGO. They do not have paid up capital and need promoters. Being a director there is easy as most of these FINGO leaders are social entrepreneurs, not investors. They need capital and also risk taking investors. It is easy to get license and also access. Friends, some of us could explore!
https://www.facebook.com/groups/531177483586163/708094175894492/?notif_t=group_comment
Now, the policy of converting Financial Intermediary NGOs (FINGOs) into "D" class MFIs has been formalized. There is good news for MFIs as their expansion has been encouraged in the policy, but also when the FINGOs (31 in February 2014, http://www.financialnepal.com/news/print_it/1949) convert themselves into "D" class MFIs, their number will be increased suddenly that will create pressure on the existing ones.
Hence, we should have full picture before reaching to any conclusion.
Yes, there is one good opportunity. Some among us could convert ourselves as promoter of a MFI by contacting and investing in a running FINGO. They do not have paid up capital and need promoters. Being a director there is easy as most of these FINGO leaders are social entrepreneurs, not investors. They need capital and also risk taking investors. It is easy to get license and also access. Friends, some of us could explore!
https://www.facebook.com/groups/531177483586163/708094175894492/?notif_t=group_comment
Commercial banks which need to increas paid up capital
Rajesh Sharma
Out
of 30 commercial banks, only 6 banks (BOK is already in merger process)
as mentioned below have to issue bonus/rights shares provided that they
may not opt for merger/acquisitions. Among them LUBL, EBL and LBL has
no significat percentage to increase, SBL and KBL are just above 10% and
only NCCB has significant percentage. NRB policy for asking to raise
capital to 2 Arab is not that much universal, which may affect prices in
banking sector, in general.
Percentage, the banks have to increase capital to meet NRB prescription:
EBL 4.0%
KBL 11%
LBL 2.9%
LUBL 3.78%
NCCB 36.1%
SBL 10.28%
Note: If I have left out any bank or have made mistake, friends, please correct me.
Percentage, the banks have to increase capital to meet NRB prescription:
EBL 4.0%
KBL 11%
LBL 2.9%
LUBL 3.78%
NCCB 36.1%
SBL 10.28%
Note: If I have left out any bank or have made mistake, friends, please correct me.
Friday, July 18, 2014
Bull market and self desciplene
Rajesh Sharma
Bear market has in-built mechanism to make people disciplined, but in bull market, we should do that ourselves.
Time to maintain perseverance and control over too high expectations, to bring down self destructive over joy and to refrain from calculating and calculating amount of profit or loss. Successes bring responsibilities and failures teach valuable lessons. Let's plan for tomorrow and let's continue our long journey of successes and failures with comfort and ease as well as normally and naturally. Let's hope and work for better and brighter next day.
All the best to friends who tasted the fruits of unprecedented success today. For others who failed to do so, there is always another day.
Time to maintain perseverance and control over too high expectations, to bring down self destructive over joy and to refrain from calculating and calculating amount of profit or loss. Successes bring responsibilities and failures teach valuable lessons. Let's plan for tomorrow and let's continue our long journey of successes and failures with comfort and ease as well as normally and naturally. Let's hope and work for better and brighter next day.
All the best to friends who tasted the fruits of unprecedented success today. For others who failed to do so, there is always another day.
CHCL and Mr. Ghising
Rajesh Sharma
I
read news item regarding Mr. Kulman Ghising's end of 4 years tenure as
CEO of CHCL and signals that his term may not be extended. Once before,
he was out but due to effective pressure from stakeholders he was
retained. This time also that possibility is there. But, if his term is
not extended and he will be back to NEA, no sky will fall down.
As a competent, committed, highly professional and effectively communicative manager, he must have been working with his team having similar values, though more or less. A company is not a one-man show and in case of mangers like Mr. Ghising he must have build a team of professionals and not sycophants. And, the one who will replace him would be a trained and experienced manager, preferably an engineer and he or she would not be functioning like a pawn at the hands of the minister/secretary. Let's give him/her, the benefit of doubt.
Hence, I believe, CHCL is a well functioning, brightly as well as professionally managed and better performing company and it would continue to be like that.
But, Mr. Ghising is tested and trusted manager, and we do not know who will replace him if that is final. Therefore, like last time we should try to exert pressure the way it was done last time and locals in Rashuwa are our best guides. From our side let's do something and the first thing we could send mails in hundreds to the minister, secretary and acting CEO of NEA asking them to respect the wishes of the stakeholders.
As a competent, committed, highly professional and effectively communicative manager, he must have been working with his team having similar values, though more or less. A company is not a one-man show and in case of mangers like Mr. Ghising he must have build a team of professionals and not sycophants. And, the one who will replace him would be a trained and experienced manager, preferably an engineer and he or she would not be functioning like a pawn at the hands of the minister/secretary. Let's give him/her, the benefit of doubt.
Hence, I believe, CHCL is a well functioning, brightly as well as professionally managed and better performing company and it would continue to be like that.
But, Mr. Ghising is tested and trusted manager, and we do not know who will replace him if that is final. Therefore, like last time we should try to exert pressure the way it was done last time and locals in Rashuwa are our best guides. From our side let's do something and the first thing we could send mails in hundreds to the minister, secretary and acting CEO of NEA asking them to respect the wishes of the stakeholders.
CHCL
My
second highest investment is in CHCL. I invested in a company which is
quite healthy financially. Its management was good and, I believe, as a
large conglomerate of several sister companies/subsidiaries, it will
remain a strong company. I have lots of appreciation of Mr. Ghising.
But, I do not believe a company will turn to red from blue due to change
of a Chief Executive. In any case, Mr. Ghising may not be a permanent
feature in CHCL as he is there representing NEA. Although, I have no
confidence in Bizmandu news item, still if it is true, I could sleep
very well tonight believing in CHCL management's capacity to run the
company well.
NRB's new monetary policy 2071/72
Rajesh Sharma
Effect of NRB's new monetary policy in the market
Basically, the policy is market neutral. Neither it will influence that much positively nor negatively, I believe. The market should take its course on its own strengths and weaknesses. Somehow, this is good.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/531177483586163/708049125898997/?notif_t=like
Basically, the policy is market neutral. Neither it will influence that much positively nor negatively, I believe. The market should take its course on its own strengths and weaknesses. Somehow, this is good.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/531177483586163/708049125898997/?notif_t=like
Something different
Rajesh Sharma
Today, I like to talk with you something different.
1. Let's love ourselves – exercise, study, diet, rest, entertain, work, sleep and keep fit, happy and up-to-date. Happiness is what we aim for.
2. Let's be selective – The world is too big and we are tiny creatures. Let's focus on a particular area, trait, profession and way of life.
3. If we choose to be an investor, we prepare ourselves.
- Learn the basics by study, sharing and practice,
- make ourselves computer/internet proficient, invest in computer/internet or visit cyber regularly,
- enhance access to information through direct means (such as quarterly/annual reports of companies by obtaining the hard copy of their publications or by visiting their websites and also by attending AGMs),
- improve language skills – both English and Nepali, (Shanta Chaudhari became an illiterate CA member and wrote a good book in her sixth year of being literate),
- cook our meal ourselves (gain skill and knowledge primarily by our own search/practice). Fast foods are tasty and easy to get, but may not be healthy.
4. Stay on course – if we decide to be someone, somewhere, we have to stand resolutely till we are not fully convinced that we should change course if that proved to be wrong. Obstacles are part of any journey, any process and any endeavor.
5. Dream Big, start with small – This is a natural growth process.
6. Let's be I (or we) and not compare with anybody's status, wealth or success. – This most of the time derails your path, drains your energy and takes no where.
My aim is to be a happy person, and my health, wealth, education, relationships and networks could be and should be the sound foundations for happiness.
Posted on Nepalsharemarket.com on 31 July 2013
http://www.nepalsharemarket.com/jambforum/Default.aspx?postid=56811#56811
1. Let's love ourselves – exercise, study, diet, rest, entertain, work, sleep and keep fit, happy and up-to-date. Happiness is what we aim for.
2. Let's be selective – The world is too big and we are tiny creatures. Let's focus on a particular area, trait, profession and way of life.
3. If we choose to be an investor, we prepare ourselves.
- Learn the basics by study, sharing and practice,
- make ourselves computer/internet proficient, invest in computer/internet or visit cyber regularly,
- enhance access to information through direct means (such as quarterly/annual reports of companies by obtaining the hard copy of their publications or by visiting their websites and also by attending AGMs),
- improve language skills – both English and Nepali, (Shanta Chaudhari became an illiterate CA member and wrote a good book in her sixth year of being literate),
- cook our meal ourselves (gain skill and knowledge primarily by our own search/practice). Fast foods are tasty and easy to get, but may not be healthy.
4. Stay on course – if we decide to be someone, somewhere, we have to stand resolutely till we are not fully convinced that we should change course if that proved to be wrong. Obstacles are part of any journey, any process and any endeavor.
5. Dream Big, start with small – This is a natural growth process.
6. Let's be I (or we) and not compare with anybody's status, wealth or success. – This most of the time derails your path, drains your energy and takes no where.
My aim is to be a happy person, and my health, wealth, education, relationships and networks could be and should be the sound foundations for happiness.
Posted on Nepalsharemarket.com on 31 July 2013
http://www.nepalsharemarket.com/jambforum/Default.aspx?postid=56811#56811
Wednesday, July 16, 2014
Market focuses on cosmetics?
Rajesh Sharma
I wonder sometime that in discussion forums, broker's chambers and bi-lateral/common discussions, why we love to talk about news, views and regulator's/government policies? When we talk always about companies still in that time we relate them with current news/rumors.
Why so? We know already the details about companies? May be, a few among us that is true. But for a big number company is not relevant. Why so? The news if that is worthy to affect, still that effect would be temporary and thus peripheral. The fundamentals of a company and financial parameters are more important. But, only a few among us care about these factors.
I wonder sometime that in discussion forums, broker's chambers and bi-lateral/common discussions, why we love to talk about news, views and regulator's/government policies? When we talk always about companies still in that time we relate them with current news/rumors.
Why so? We know already the details about companies? May be, a few among us that is true. But for a big number company is not relevant. Why so? The news if that is worthy to affect, still that effect would be temporary and thus peripheral. The fundamentals of a company and financial parameters are more important. But, only a few among us care about these factors.
What factors rule
the Nepali market then? The primary factor is trend. Trend is the
companion of traders. Going by trends, the traders use news, short term
policy changes or even procedural shifts as raw materials to influence
market processes at least for a short term. Moreover, they
manufacture/discover rumor and use it as good looking cosmetic. All
these attempts, they believe, will work for their speculative advantage.
Now, when big investor like Nirmal Pradhan have turned to being a speculator, it is natural that the portals of national repute create speculative framework by declaring that that very day market could have 30 points up. The market starts behaving like a mad and drunken Bhakkuko Rango (a mad and drunken he-buffalo) and moves up to everybody's surprise. When big speculators finish executing their sell order, the market gradually moves to its normal range. Deceived traders stay out of market and the market comes down. Anyway, it is traders profession to buy and sell, hence, they come back and market starts vibrating once again.
Therefore, I have concluded that in Nepali share market, only investors are concerned about the company as they put money for a long time but their number is too small. Many among them are institutional investors who never come to discussion forums, broker's chambers or any other discussion platforms. Hence, always we see traders active in these areas and there news, views, change in policies/procedures and rumor got high value. This is, perhaps, normal and natural for trading behavior.
But, if we invest, we should have a different temperament and trait, and thus, we should focus on companies, which pay us back.
.
Now, when big investor like Nirmal Pradhan have turned to being a speculator, it is natural that the portals of national repute create speculative framework by declaring that that very day market could have 30 points up. The market starts behaving like a mad and drunken Bhakkuko Rango (a mad and drunken he-buffalo) and moves up to everybody's surprise. When big speculators finish executing their sell order, the market gradually moves to its normal range. Deceived traders stay out of market and the market comes down. Anyway, it is traders profession to buy and sell, hence, they come back and market starts vibrating once again.
Therefore, I have concluded that in Nepali share market, only investors are concerned about the company as they put money for a long time but their number is too small. Many among them are institutional investors who never come to discussion forums, broker's chambers or any other discussion platforms. Hence, always we see traders active in these areas and there news, views, change in policies/procedures and rumor got high value. This is, perhaps, normal and natural for trading behavior.
But, if we invest, we should have a different temperament and trait, and thus, we should focus on companies, which pay us back.
.
Tuesday, July 15, 2014
NHPC
Rajesh Sharma
Jit Bahadur is like a phoenix – rises live once again from the ashes. This time too he is having fearce battle to survive. He did all wrong with Harisddhi. He repeated the same with Nepal Sri Lanka Merchant Bank Limited, NB Insurance, NBB, NCCB and NHPC.
Now, NSLMBL is no more, NBB has come out of Jit Bahadur-Laxmi Bahadur's grip. Harisiddhi and NB Insurance are at Brahmanal (deathbed). NCCB and NHPC are two companies where great revelry has been going on between two giants – NB Group led by Jit Bahadur-Laxmi Bahadur and informal New Investor Group led by Nirmal Pradhan to control their managements. Long time ago, Nirmal Pradhan was considered a fair player, but more recently, while fighting against NB Group, he became like leaders of NB Group - unfair and wrong-doing.
The fight between NB Group and New Investor Group or between Laxmi Bahadur-Jit Bahadur and Nirmal Pradhan -Shankar Kumar is the primary reason behind the price movement of these two companies. Both groups have been trying to establish their control over these two companies. However, the day when one group realizes that it is loosing the battle, the story may be entirely different.
Yesterday alone NHPC had transaction by a Single broker (56) of more than 114,000 kittas in more than 40 transactions followed by another broker (32) who has done single transaction of 60,000 kittas, both buying and selling plus another 2500 kittas in 2 transactions, totaling to 62500 kittas selling transactions. Broker no 33 has done transaction of more than 21,000 units in 12 transactions. Interesting to analyze and understand! (One of the unconfirmed 'leak' is that NCCB sold NHPC shares that it was holding and NB Group bought them back. No confirmation.)
If you are a smart trader/speculator who could smell the rat and have courage of a climber to Everest, NHPC and NCCB may give you handsome capital gains. But, if you fail to speculate rightly, there are chances that you may fall flat on the road. Particularly, NHPC is more risky as you do not know its actual financial status before the AGM. May be, they will organize AGM this time on July 16, 2014.
The picture what I have presented above is simply my perception and understanding. You please read them with that angle in mind.
Jit Bahadur is like a phoenix – rises live once again from the ashes. This time too he is having fearce battle to survive. He did all wrong with Harisddhi. He repeated the same with Nepal Sri Lanka Merchant Bank Limited, NB Insurance, NBB, NCCB and NHPC.
Now, NSLMBL is no more, NBB has come out of Jit Bahadur-Laxmi Bahadur's grip. Harisiddhi and NB Insurance are at Brahmanal (deathbed). NCCB and NHPC are two companies where great revelry has been going on between two giants – NB Group led by Jit Bahadur-Laxmi Bahadur and informal New Investor Group led by Nirmal Pradhan to control their managements. Long time ago, Nirmal Pradhan was considered a fair player, but more recently, while fighting against NB Group, he became like leaders of NB Group - unfair and wrong-doing.
The fight between NB Group and New Investor Group or between Laxmi Bahadur-Jit Bahadur and Nirmal Pradhan -Shankar Kumar is the primary reason behind the price movement of these two companies. Both groups have been trying to establish their control over these two companies. However, the day when one group realizes that it is loosing the battle, the story may be entirely different.
Yesterday alone NHPC had transaction by a Single broker (56) of more than 114,000 kittas in more than 40 transactions followed by another broker (32) who has done single transaction of 60,000 kittas, both buying and selling plus another 2500 kittas in 2 transactions, totaling to 62500 kittas selling transactions. Broker no 33 has done transaction of more than 21,000 units in 12 transactions. Interesting to analyze and understand! (One of the unconfirmed 'leak' is that NCCB sold NHPC shares that it was holding and NB Group bought them back. No confirmation.)
If you are a smart trader/speculator who could smell the rat and have courage of a climber to Everest, NHPC and NCCB may give you handsome capital gains. But, if you fail to speculate rightly, there are chances that you may fall flat on the road. Particularly, NHPC is more risky as you do not know its actual financial status before the AGM. May be, they will organize AGM this time on July 16, 2014.
The picture what I have presented above is simply my perception and understanding. You please read them with that angle in mind.
Friday, July 11, 2014
BPCL once again
Rajesh Sharma
BPCL is a big conglomerate. It is not a project. First, please see it in its larger picture. Second, projects will come in and projects will go out. It is normal phenomenon in BOOT (Build, Own, Operate and transfer) system in hydro-power. When the time come to hand over one project, the good companies would be completing another project. The same is true for BPCL. In the last two years, it gave 18% dividend and 161% capital gain, even when its Andhikhola project was under maintenance. In my opinion, it will be a very good choice for investment. For trading, it is not much preferred by traders. So, being careful is better. Its price has moved up from about 760 a few weeks ago to about 865 now. When the effect of NRB's concern about bank investment in insurance and hydro-power will dies down, its price may have another jump. Moreover, its price is highly influenced by acts of big investor in hydro-power, Mr. Gyanendra Lal Pradhan. Watch out, what he is doing.
BPCL has the following under construction projects:
• Andhikhola Upgrading Project
• Kabeli ‘A’ Hydro Electric Project
• Khudi Hydropower Project
• Lower Manang Marsyangdi
• Nyadi
BPCL has the following sister organizations
Associates
• Himal Power Limited
• Hydro Lab Private Limited
• Jhimruk Industrial Development
Subsidiaries
• BPC Services Limited
• Hydro Consult Private Limited
• Kabeli Energy Limited
• Khudi Hydropower Limited
• Nepal Hydro & Electric Limited
• Nyadi Hydropower Limited
Please read useful info from BPC website and world bank press release as mentioned below.
http://www.bpc.com.np/index.php?option=com_page...
http://www.worldbank.org/.../world-bank-group-kabeli...
BPCL is a big conglomerate. It is not a project. First, please see it in its larger picture. Second, projects will come in and projects will go out. It is normal phenomenon in BOOT (Build, Own, Operate and transfer) system in hydro-power. When the time come to hand over one project, the good companies would be completing another project. The same is true for BPCL. In the last two years, it gave 18% dividend and 161% capital gain, even when its Andhikhola project was under maintenance. In my opinion, it will be a very good choice for investment. For trading, it is not much preferred by traders. So, being careful is better. Its price has moved up from about 760 a few weeks ago to about 865 now. When the effect of NRB's concern about bank investment in insurance and hydro-power will dies down, its price may have another jump. Moreover, its price is highly influenced by acts of big investor in hydro-power, Mr. Gyanendra Lal Pradhan. Watch out, what he is doing.
BPCL has the following under construction projects:
• Andhikhola Upgrading Project
• Kabeli ‘A’ Hydro Electric Project
• Khudi Hydropower Project
• Lower Manang Marsyangdi
• Nyadi
BPCL has the following sister organizations
Associates
• Himal Power Limited
• Hydro Lab Private Limited
• Jhimruk Industrial Development
Subsidiaries
• BPC Services Limited
• Hydro Consult Private Limited
• Kabeli Energy Limited
• Khudi Hydropower Limited
• Nepal Hydro & Electric Limited
• Nyadi Hydropower Limited
Please read useful info from BPC website and world bank press release as mentioned below.
http://www.bpc.com.np/index.php?option=com_page...
http://www.worldbank.org/.../world-bank-group-kabeli...
Sewa vs Fewa
Rajesh Sharma
Fewa: Paid up 33 corer, Annualized EPS till third qtr 20.70, Net worth per share 144, current market price 280. Sewa: Paid up 25 corer, Annualized EPS till third qtr 19.79, Net worth per share 140, current market price 348. Nawarajji, Fewa is marginally better than Sewa. Nearly all Pokhara based finance companies are good. Rest, your decision to sell or to hold Fewa.
Fewa: Paid up 33 corer, Annualized EPS till third qtr 20.70, Net worth per share 144, current market price 280. Sewa: Paid up 25 corer, Annualized EPS till third qtr 19.79, Net worth per share 140, current market price 348. Nawarajji, Fewa is marginally better than Sewa. Nearly all Pokhara based finance companies are good. Rest, your decision to sell or to hold Fewa.
Thursday, July 10, 2014
When to exit from the market?
Rajesh Sharma
It depends on three factors: goal, level of satisfaction, financials. If your goal is being investor/trader of stocks as profession, exit from market never arises. If you are part timer, it depends upon your another main profession and your level of satisfaction in the market. If your main profession is not compatible with share business or you are unsatisfied, exiting from the market as early as possible is beneficial. Finally, if your finances do not allow you being in the market, you will be automatically forced out. Exit will not remain a voluntary option here.
It depends on three factors: goal, level of satisfaction, financials. If your goal is being investor/trader of stocks as profession, exit from market never arises. If you are part timer, it depends upon your another main profession and your level of satisfaction in the market. If your main profession is not compatible with share business or you are unsatisfied, exiting from the market as early as possible is beneficial. Finally, if your finances do not allow you being in the market, you will be automatically forced out. Exit will not remain a voluntary option here.
Market has been gaining confidence
Rajesh Sharma
Market has been gradually gaining confidence of large and medium level investors/traders. Could make a big jump after a small correction or basically a brief period of stabilization.
Market has been gradually gaining confidence of large and medium level investors/traders. Could make a big jump after a small correction or basically a brief period of stabilization.
Wednesday, July 9, 2014
Picture of Top 10 Safe and Secure Companies (9.7.2012 – 8. 7. 2014) in 2 years - 2
Rajesh Sharma
Capital Gain in two years
Co. Price
(9.7.2012) Price (8.7.2014) Adj price with
bonus/rights % Change
NTC 490 620 620 26.5%
Nabil 830 2450 3675 343%
SCB 1760 2535 3219 83%
CHCL 862 2680 4529 425%
EBL 965 2675 3665 278%
NIB 507 960 1315 159%
HBL 635 974 1179 86%
BPCL 547 880 1428 161%
SBI 622 1300 1651 165%
LBL 326 574 660 102%
NOT: I have taken out NIC due to difficulty in comparison
after merger with BOA and not included GBIME due to it being a merged company.
For next comparison, I have included both of them.
Top 3 star performers are: CHCL, Nabil and EBL.
Source of base data: www.nepalstock.com
Note: I have taken out NIC and BOK due to merger. I will add new companies such as GBIME, NICA etc in my further studies.The top next companies may be different in the new list.
Also please read Top 5 companies and the basis for selecting those companies in my previous study available at www.sharenepalcomments.wordpress.com
Also please read Top 5 companies and the basis for selecting those companies in my previous study available at www.sharenepalcomments.wordpress.com
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