Question of a friend: is this start of bear run? Or (this is) preparation and correction to break 1175 high?
My answer: There are no critical factors that bring bear phase back now. I think that all macro political and economic factors are positive. The micro factors would be seen in companies' 4rth quarter balance sheet and hopefully majority of the companies would show good results. Hence, I think 1175 is the next target and bull will continue after this prolonged correction phase.
Question of a friend: If there is bear run anytime soon or when there
is bear run after full completion of Bull Run? What level do you think
that bear runs ends?
My answer: Bear is generally considered when the index falls down by 20% or more over a period of two months. This situation I do not see would be there at least for a year.
Question of a friend: So after even 1 year as per you bear market Ko rock bottom Kati hola?
My answer: If index reaches 2000 by that time, it may be down by 200-300. But this is just a hypothetical issue for now.
Question of a friend: But only 300 points down Hudainma bear Ko rock bottom hune guess ho ra? Should not Nepse come down to just above 1000 range to complete its bear run ...if ....
My answer: History repeats but from a higher spiral. There will be no 291 index in foreseeable future. Rock bottom also comes on a higher spiral and would be, most probably, much higher than where NEPSE Index is now. We should view market in a dynamic realm not as a static phenomenon. (I have added the last one sentence just now.)
(Many friends know Gautam Raj Rai ji. The questions above were asked by him in Chat messages. Many friends know him in this forum, hence, I have mentioned his name here.)
My answer: Bear is generally considered when the index falls down by 20% or more over a period of two months. This situation I do not see would be there at least for a year.
Question of a friend: So after even 1 year as per you bear market Ko rock bottom Kati hola?
My answer: If index reaches 2000 by that time, it may be down by 200-300. But this is just a hypothetical issue for now.
Question of a friend: But only 300 points down Hudainma bear Ko rock bottom hune guess ho ra? Should not Nepse come down to just above 1000 range to complete its bear run ...if ....
My answer: History repeats but from a higher spiral. There will be no 291 index in foreseeable future. Rock bottom also comes on a higher spiral and would be, most probably, much higher than where NEPSE Index is now. We should view market in a dynamic realm not as a static phenomenon. (I have added the last one sentence just now.)
(Many friends know Gautam Raj Rai ji. The questions above were asked by him in Chat messages. Many friends know him in this forum, hence, I have mentioned his name here.)
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