Business advisory August 4, 2014
Many friends use to ask me about right companies to invest in. This is one of the most difficult question to answer. I have answered friends in chat messages about a few companies, but without knowing full picture of an investor/trader, it is just like throwing a stone on a mango tree to get a fresh mango. The stone may hit the target or may miss. Keeping this in mind and thinking that out of several hundred thousand investors, we are just 1466 now and the people who visit the forum regularly are not many; I would share my perspective as below. (Please consider me as an ammeter, not a professional, a person who shares his perspective and is not an expert analyst at all.)
1. Insurance companies and micro finance companies have jumped tremendously up. I do not see any BIG jump in these companies in near future. So, these companies may still be attractive for investors; for traders, I think, not so attractive. In case, we could discover an exception, that is different. But, generally, we should get full facts before investing in these two sectors.
2. The factors that contributed in rise in price of NBL, ADBL, NHPC, etc are not well understood, rather than big/institutional investors started buying and others followed. Hence, we have to do good homework before buying these stocks.
3. After landslide in Sindhupalchowk, the investors/traders got awakened about the destructive "water power, hill power". Moreover, a well written article that has dipicted facts only from negative side to put the BPCL in bad light has been published; and Ghising's transfer have made entire hydro-power sector unstable. These are not so new facts, but every time when something is repeated it brings its expanded impact, as Hitler's propaganda chief Goebbels did. Hence, for investors, hydro-power companies are the best attraction be it AHPC or CHCL or RIDI or BPCL (I have reservation about current price level of SHPC and financial health of NHPC!), but for traders, it is not so rosy. In a few weeks there could be a jump in hydro power index but it may even fall down. High risk speculators could jump, but for others better to go for other options.
4. Finance companies, development banks and commercial banks are the good options now particularly for trading. There could be a major jump in prices of many companies after they publish their 4th quarter reports. Four critical factors we have to look into for trading. 1. Recent trend assessment of price movement, 2. could be traded instantly, 3. Company's image and credibility, and 4. a few facts about dividend history, eps, net worth etc. We have to do this home work ourselves as home cooked meal with right ingredients is healthy and could be nutritious
Overall, from today, BUY time could pick up. Let's make ourselves ready with cash. Cash in hand makes lot of difference in earning more cash through the process of buy and sell. We often run after stocks and forget about cash/provision for cash including loan. Let's make balance.
Many friends use to ask me about right companies to invest in. This is one of the most difficult question to answer. I have answered friends in chat messages about a few companies, but without knowing full picture of an investor/trader, it is just like throwing a stone on a mango tree to get a fresh mango. The stone may hit the target or may miss. Keeping this in mind and thinking that out of several hundred thousand investors, we are just 1466 now and the people who visit the forum regularly are not many; I would share my perspective as below. (Please consider me as an ammeter, not a professional, a person who shares his perspective and is not an expert analyst at all.)
1. Insurance companies and micro finance companies have jumped tremendously up. I do not see any BIG jump in these companies in near future. So, these companies may still be attractive for investors; for traders, I think, not so attractive. In case, we could discover an exception, that is different. But, generally, we should get full facts before investing in these two sectors.
2. The factors that contributed in rise in price of NBL, ADBL, NHPC, etc are not well understood, rather than big/institutional investors started buying and others followed. Hence, we have to do good homework before buying these stocks.
3. After landslide in Sindhupalchowk, the investors/traders got awakened about the destructive "water power, hill power". Moreover, a well written article that has dipicted facts only from negative side to put the BPCL in bad light has been published; and Ghising's transfer have made entire hydro-power sector unstable. These are not so new facts, but every time when something is repeated it brings its expanded impact, as Hitler's propaganda chief Goebbels did. Hence, for investors, hydro-power companies are the best attraction be it AHPC or CHCL or RIDI or BPCL (I have reservation about current price level of SHPC and financial health of NHPC!), but for traders, it is not so rosy. In a few weeks there could be a jump in hydro power index but it may even fall down. High risk speculators could jump, but for others better to go for other options.
4. Finance companies, development banks and commercial banks are the good options now particularly for trading. There could be a major jump in prices of many companies after they publish their 4th quarter reports. Four critical factors we have to look into for trading. 1. Recent trend assessment of price movement, 2. could be traded instantly, 3. Company's image and credibility, and 4. a few facts about dividend history, eps, net worth etc. We have to do this home work ourselves as home cooked meal with right ingredients is healthy and could be nutritious
Overall, from today, BUY time could pick up. Let's make ourselves ready with cash. Cash in hand makes lot of difference in earning more cash through the process of buy and sell. We often run after stocks and forget about cash/provision for cash including loan. Let's make balance.
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