Rajesh Sharma
Could the market sustain the increase?
The market has been highly unstable for a long time. However, it was continuously going down for a few months with some exception of increase for a day or two. This phenomenon is the result of immaturity on the part of investors and domination of traders. We behave in a very emotional manner and lack ability to rationalize new developments. Gut feelings, believing in luck and making decisions influenced by rumors are a few characteristics of us.
However, this depressed phase of a longer time period has, perhaps, compelled to leave the market for quite a good number of small investors and also it downsized the influence of some BIG names. The downward journey of the market has inflicted injuries to many. Now, who are still surviving, they have plenty of experiences. We have seen ups a few months ago and downs recently and most importantly, we survived to see happenings of today. In this time of "survival of fittest", we must have some strong qualities and are buying and selling now.
The external factors including macro-economic fundamentals and company performances are not bad. Even, they are far better than previous years. The political drama alone may play negative or positive as the parties and leaders are unprofessional, unpredictable and self-serving. Anyway, now, they are also pressurized from all corners and they have no escape route. In Magh 8 or after some months, they must complete the constitution writing task. Now, the Indian line is clear - you got already what you wanted in this fluid situation, institutionalize the gains by getting further endorsement from a more stronger authority in Nepal. Hence, the constitution and a national unity government afterward sound logical now.
Therefore, I believe that the increase that we have seen is not only sustainable, it will move up much higher. May be, tomorrow or day after, we can not say; but on week to week basis. it may go up and up. However, the gradual and slower pace of increase is much better and sustainable.
In this phase of upward movement too, we should not be color blind. We have to select the companies to trade on or to invest carefully.
Sunday, December 14, 2014
Thursday, December 11, 2014
Overcome Fear!
Rajesh Sharma
Political uncertainty and perception of gloomy future have been considered the main reasons behind free fall in NEPSE index. Where the fall started, it created a strange phenomenon of fear among investors. Is the political situation so worse? Is the perception of gloomy future right?
1. The talk of new constitution has been irritating. Talks after talks, meeting after meetings and sitting after sitting have gone astray. Hence, this is frustrating. But, this failure of political leadership has limitations. Is it that sky will fall down if no constitution will be there in January or even July next year? No.
2. The politics of subjugation has many demerits. Bending body in front of a foreign leader is too bad. Renting conscience to occupy positions of power is too shameful. But, strange results have been seen in Nepal due to this factor. Decade long civil conflict has ended due to 12 point agreement as India wished so. In the same fashion, one fine morning if India wishes to end petty bickering in Nepal, there could be 'consensus' within hours. The decisions would be delivered from Delhi in fast food boxes, and the leaders of different names and faces would assemble the food items in packets and sell to us as their very own creation. Hence, being serious about differences among parties and leaders is too unrealistic.
3. There is no system break down; there is no anarchy at grassroots level where people live and work and maintain peace and harmony; and the financial institutions are functioning normally though a few cases of fraud and embezzlement are there.
4. Hence, the higher wattage given by media, experts and investors to political uncertainty particularly the holy cow called constitution is artificial. In reality, we do not have instability, yes there is some uncertainty and that is not that bad as it is perceived. And, the perception of gloomy future if constitution promulgation is delayed is nothing other than an imagery created by the investors themselves. This is not a realistic conclusion that we will be in dark days without a new constitution.
5. Finally, I believe, we have to come out of the cocoon made by self inflicting BIG players in the beginning and nurtured by ourselves thereafter. The market gets affected by government policies, its nature and image; however, focusing on a single factor for everything is the result of a tunnel vision. When, a good number of we investors will understand this reality, the market would start behaving normally. And, I think, the days are nearer, when many among us will understand this. Now, BT pressure has been over; CDS implementation sounds sure, banks have been providing loans at attractive interest rates and relative political stability is still there; only the major hurdle is mass psychology of fear among investors. This is time, we have to take moderate risk and use the opportunity provided by the lower market index.
Posted on
Political uncertainty and perception of gloomy future have been considered the main reasons behind free fall in NEPSE index. Where the fall started, it created a strange phenomenon of fear among investors. Is the political situation so worse? Is the perception of gloomy future right?
1. The talk of new constitution has been irritating. Talks after talks, meeting after meetings and sitting after sitting have gone astray. Hence, this is frustrating. But, this failure of political leadership has limitations. Is it that sky will fall down if no constitution will be there in January or even July next year? No.
2. The politics of subjugation has many demerits. Bending body in front of a foreign leader is too bad. Renting conscience to occupy positions of power is too shameful. But, strange results have been seen in Nepal due to this factor. Decade long civil conflict has ended due to 12 point agreement as India wished so. In the same fashion, one fine morning if India wishes to end petty bickering in Nepal, there could be 'consensus' within hours. The decisions would be delivered from Delhi in fast food boxes, and the leaders of different names and faces would assemble the food items in packets and sell to us as their very own creation. Hence, being serious about differences among parties and leaders is too unrealistic.
3. There is no system break down; there is no anarchy at grassroots level where people live and work and maintain peace and harmony; and the financial institutions are functioning normally though a few cases of fraud and embezzlement are there.
4. Hence, the higher wattage given by media, experts and investors to political uncertainty particularly the holy cow called constitution is artificial. In reality, we do not have instability, yes there is some uncertainty and that is not that bad as it is perceived. And, the perception of gloomy future if constitution promulgation is delayed is nothing other than an imagery created by the investors themselves. This is not a realistic conclusion that we will be in dark days without a new constitution.
5. Finally, I believe, we have to come out of the cocoon made by self inflicting BIG players in the beginning and nurtured by ourselves thereafter. The market gets affected by government policies, its nature and image; however, focusing on a single factor for everything is the result of a tunnel vision. When, a good number of we investors will understand this reality, the market would start behaving normally. And, I think, the days are nearer, when many among us will understand this. Now, BT pressure has been over; CDS implementation sounds sure, banks have been providing loans at attractive interest rates and relative political stability is still there; only the major hurdle is mass psychology of fear among investors. This is time, we have to take moderate risk and use the opportunity provided by the lower market index.
Posted on
https://www.facebook.com/groups/531177483586163/771201216250454/?notif_t=like
Thursday, November 20, 2014
Investment in shares vs commercial real estate
Rajesh Sharma
My answer to Nepali@pardesh regarding investment in share market vs real estate commercial property.
I have copied and posted his post and two other post also for reference.
Nepali@Pardesh - I know the saying that “Expect no good thing free from anyone” but I have been seeing many contributors in this forum who have been providing genuine advises free of costs time and again. I know they have not been receiving anything measurable in cash but the respect, trust which are more than any other thing from the members. I have always been silently saluting those genuine contributors.
I have a situation and want genuine advise from members of this forum, please if you allow. I have been investing in stock market since last 16 years but living abroad since last few years. One of my family members has been making transactions with the outstanding support from the broker house. Total value of the stock that I have in Nepal (as of today) is around 3.8 crore and I am required to make a decision as soon as possible whether to keep them or de-invest (full or part of it) it to buy a commercial house in Kathmandu in order to ensure regular monthly income. I have been maintaining spreadsheet, other members might have been doing the same thing, and announced divided for this year has been around 5,000 kitta of Bonus Share and around 360,000 of cash so far. There are still few companies that have not yet announced dividend this year which will, I hope, make around 5,600 BS and around 450,000 cash dividend in total for this year. I am in a cross road now and need expert advise from generous members of this forum, if it is a good idea for me to de-invest stocks and invest in commercial real estate (estimated price is Nrs. 365,00,000) with the estimated monthly income 170,000 in Kathmandu or stay holding (probably adding good scrips and selling less performing scrips) them for few years.
I know the question that I am putting in the forum is not that easy but good contributor like Rajesh Ji, FrEaK_MoNeYji, Nirbal BabaJi, Genuine NewsJi, Keshavji, Berkshire HathwayJi, SlingJi, FightforCauseji, 50 weeks Lowji, MacBethji and others many genuine contributors can help me with their view so that I can make a wise determination as I, personally, am not in a position to make a concrete decision as I used to do in past.
I would sincerely appreciate advise from friends that is not because they are free but because they are priceless for me which will eventually help me to make a wise decision and thank you all for your time reading this story and contributions.
Thank you all.
Nepali@Pardesh
Keshav - In Nepali culture, owning a home for living is essential from psychological, future security view point. However, I do not think it is a good idea of buying commercial house by selling shares. Of course, there could be capital gain if there will be real estate boom but the regular return from real estate is not justified. In your example, you will earn 5.5% return (annual 2 million from 3.8 crore). You also need to pay tax on your rent income.
To me, being choosy and retaining high returning shares and sell low performing ones will be right strategy. You can easily make at least 20% return with good shares.
Big Bull - i agree with keshav ji....
stocks can never be compared to a rent giving residential property...this is not monaco where u get millions for a room....
stocks are easy to liquidate not house...
people only think about the rent but they forget the add the cost that they need to buy the house...
properties have to be maintained regularly....problems arise time and again etc etc....additional costs....etc etc...
u are talking about rent....guess what:-- u will get more money as interest if u keep it in a deposit..problem free, maintainence free...always liquid...
stocks are even better....just portfolio should be good and well diversified and have to be trimmed time and again....
if i had a house i would sell it and invest in stocks instead.....
and mr. Hajurbau....3.8 crores might seem a big sum but it can be acquired easily....just keep on investing, saving , accumulating...million $ is not very far.....
Always
BiG BuLL.....
My Answer:
1. You asked questions not to an analyst but to all of us, active investors. We see opportunity in investment, so we are here and, by nature, we advise you to stay in share business.
2. The money you are talking is quite small if not used as equity together with bank loan, for real estate or commercial real state property. But, for share market, it is handsome amount. Some people like being king of hell rather than being slave in heaven. BE KING AND STAY IN SHARE BUSINESS.
3. Rental income comes with several complications. The tenant could be a problem, maintenance cost may be high, hazards like fire, earthquake are there as by our attitude, we see insurance as additional burden.
4. Generally speaking, you will never retire mentally if you are in share business. It will keep you always alert as the market moves like a octopus - any side, any time. You need to keep your eyes open and brain alert. In rental income, you have to keep yourself ready just to see your deposits in the bank account and if that is not added to be ready to talk tough with your tenant. I agree with BigBull ji as this is not Macao.
5. Most of the time, investment in share gives you better return than investment in real state. I had purchased Chilime shares at 1100 around two years ago. I got 30% and 20% bonus shares and some cash dividend too. Its price is 1515 now. You could calculate the return and this happened when everybody is crying for falling market. Once its price had reached 2700.
6. Finally, I cast my vote in favor of the same strategy as Keshav ji has stated above. Change stocks according to their performance and growth prospect and if you are away and could not keep close watch, please get help by hiring part time professionals or fund management agencies.
Good luck and all the best.
http://www.nepalsharemarket.com/jambforum/Default.aspx?postid=103932#103932
My answer to Nepali@pardesh regarding investment in share market vs real estate commercial property.
I have copied and posted his post and two other post also for reference.
Nepali@Pardesh - I know the saying that “Expect no good thing free from anyone” but I have been seeing many contributors in this forum who have been providing genuine advises free of costs time and again. I know they have not been receiving anything measurable in cash but the respect, trust which are more than any other thing from the members. I have always been silently saluting those genuine contributors.
I have a situation and want genuine advise from members of this forum, please if you allow. I have been investing in stock market since last 16 years but living abroad since last few years. One of my family members has been making transactions with the outstanding support from the broker house. Total value of the stock that I have in Nepal (as of today) is around 3.8 crore and I am required to make a decision as soon as possible whether to keep them or de-invest (full or part of it) it to buy a commercial house in Kathmandu in order to ensure regular monthly income. I have been maintaining spreadsheet, other members might have been doing the same thing, and announced divided for this year has been around 5,000 kitta of Bonus Share and around 360,000 of cash so far. There are still few companies that have not yet announced dividend this year which will, I hope, make around 5,600 BS and around 450,000 cash dividend in total for this year. I am in a cross road now and need expert advise from generous members of this forum, if it is a good idea for me to de-invest stocks and invest in commercial real estate (estimated price is Nrs. 365,00,000) with the estimated monthly income 170,000 in Kathmandu or stay holding (probably adding good scrips and selling less performing scrips) them for few years.
I know the question that I am putting in the forum is not that easy but good contributor like Rajesh Ji, FrEaK_MoNeYji, Nirbal BabaJi, Genuine NewsJi, Keshavji, Berkshire HathwayJi, SlingJi, FightforCauseji, 50 weeks Lowji, MacBethji and others many genuine contributors can help me with their view so that I can make a wise determination as I, personally, am not in a position to make a concrete decision as I used to do in past.
I would sincerely appreciate advise from friends that is not because they are free but because they are priceless for me which will eventually help me to make a wise decision and thank you all for your time reading this story and contributions.
Thank you all.
Nepali@Pardesh
Keshav - In Nepali culture, owning a home for living is essential from psychological, future security view point. However, I do not think it is a good idea of buying commercial house by selling shares. Of course, there could be capital gain if there will be real estate boom but the regular return from real estate is not justified. In your example, you will earn 5.5% return (annual 2 million from 3.8 crore). You also need to pay tax on your rent income.
To me, being choosy and retaining high returning shares and sell low performing ones will be right strategy. You can easily make at least 20% return with good shares.
Big Bull - i agree with keshav ji....
stocks can never be compared to a rent giving residential property...this is not monaco where u get millions for a room....
stocks are easy to liquidate not house...
people only think about the rent but they forget the add the cost that they need to buy the house...
properties have to be maintained regularly....problems arise time and again etc etc....additional costs....etc etc...
u are talking about rent....guess what:-- u will get more money as interest if u keep it in a deposit..problem free, maintainence free...always liquid...
stocks are even better....just portfolio should be good and well diversified and have to be trimmed time and again....
if i had a house i would sell it and invest in stocks instead.....
and mr. Hajurbau....3.8 crores might seem a big sum but it can be acquired easily....just keep on investing, saving , accumulating...million $ is not very far.....
Always
BiG BuLL.....
My Answer:
1. You asked questions not to an analyst but to all of us, active investors. We see opportunity in investment, so we are here and, by nature, we advise you to stay in share business.
2. The money you are talking is quite small if not used as equity together with bank loan, for real estate or commercial real state property. But, for share market, it is handsome amount. Some people like being king of hell rather than being slave in heaven. BE KING AND STAY IN SHARE BUSINESS.
3. Rental income comes with several complications. The tenant could be a problem, maintenance cost may be high, hazards like fire, earthquake are there as by our attitude, we see insurance as additional burden.
4. Generally speaking, you will never retire mentally if you are in share business. It will keep you always alert as the market moves like a octopus - any side, any time. You need to keep your eyes open and brain alert. In rental income, you have to keep yourself ready just to see your deposits in the bank account and if that is not added to be ready to talk tough with your tenant. I agree with BigBull ji as this is not Macao.
5. Most of the time, investment in share gives you better return than investment in real state. I had purchased Chilime shares at 1100 around two years ago. I got 30% and 20% bonus shares and some cash dividend too. Its price is 1515 now. You could calculate the return and this happened when everybody is crying for falling market. Once its price had reached 2700.
6. Finally, I cast my vote in favor of the same strategy as Keshav ji has stated above. Change stocks according to their performance and growth prospect and if you are away and could not keep close watch, please get help by hiring part time professionals or fund management agencies.
Good luck and all the best.
http://www.nepalsharemarket.com/jambforum/Default.aspx?postid=103932#103932
Sunday, November 16, 2014
NEPSE Index falling further
Rajesh Sharma
NEPSE index has come down significantly (866/16//11/2014). It may make things different for many people and areas. Many small traders might have disappeared already from the scene or will follow soon. Their holding capacity may be not so strong to resist such scenario. The insurance companies and Mutual Funds may suffer in areas of their investment as banking stocks as their major investment avenue have come down tremendously. If the insurance and hydro sector shares would fall big, banking sector would get more and more loss as the banks including other BFIs have invested in insurance and hydro-power companies. Though by a smaller fraction, their investment income would decrease. The liquidity scenario has not improved radically, there is added obligation due to bonus/rights shares issues and political environment not still so conducive for investment, this falling trend of share market would add salt to their injuries.
NEPSE index has come down significantly (866/16//11/2014). It may make things different for many people and areas. Many small traders might have disappeared already from the scene or will follow soon. Their holding capacity may be not so strong to resist such scenario. The insurance companies and Mutual Funds may suffer in areas of their investment as banking stocks as their major investment avenue have come down tremendously. If the insurance and hydro sector shares would fall big, banking sector would get more and more loss as the banks including other BFIs have invested in insurance and hydro-power companies. Though by a smaller fraction, their investment income would decrease. The liquidity scenario has not improved radically, there is added obligation due to bonus/rights shares issues and political environment not still so conducive for investment, this falling trend of share market would add salt to their injuries.
Due to uncertainties created by half hearted implementation of CDS,
complication in getting loan against demated shares, pressure on
clearing BT and negative mass market psychology together with unstable
and unpredictable political situation; we are in this situation.
Hence, NEPSE should implement CDS in full as soon as possible and change in date from Magh 2 would further erode investor confidence. The Rastra Bank should issue directive as soon as possible to flow bank loan against demated shares. Book closer date coming to end by next month for a large number of popular companies certainly that would clear the BT store. And, if at least these three factors would be in place, the mass market psychology of investors may turn to positive. The political course, we do not know and may be if other micro-level initiatives would be in place, the effect of political instability could be minimized.
For me and friends like my background who have seen NEPSE sliding to 290 from 1175; this is not a terror. We had flourished, got nearly bankrupt, became nervous and humiliated by none other than oneself, stood some how in fragile state, got some light, recreated hope, built some confidence, slowly started to stand firm, saw the darkness gradually thinning and once saw an orchestra creating wonderful waves of lovely music when NEPSE reached to 1083.
Therefore, I believe, this fall is nothing new for us and would not fall flat. But, other friends also who are particularly new, my advice is to hold firm and live life as normal as possible. Days are dark; days are sunny. In such situation, harvesting happiness is what we should concentrate on. Today, all my companies are going down except one. I am proud of that one particular company. For other companies too, I have sympathy. Without any fault of theirs, they have been suffering. Cure is there and they would start jumping one day when the environment would help them to flourish. May be, I am a diehard optimist, I am not sure.
Hence, NEPSE should implement CDS in full as soon as possible and change in date from Magh 2 would further erode investor confidence. The Rastra Bank should issue directive as soon as possible to flow bank loan against demated shares. Book closer date coming to end by next month for a large number of popular companies certainly that would clear the BT store. And, if at least these three factors would be in place, the mass market psychology of investors may turn to positive. The political course, we do not know and may be if other micro-level initiatives would be in place, the effect of political instability could be minimized.
For me and friends like my background who have seen NEPSE sliding to 290 from 1175; this is not a terror. We had flourished, got nearly bankrupt, became nervous and humiliated by none other than oneself, stood some how in fragile state, got some light, recreated hope, built some confidence, slowly started to stand firm, saw the darkness gradually thinning and once saw an orchestra creating wonderful waves of lovely music when NEPSE reached to 1083.
Therefore, I believe, this fall is nothing new for us and would not fall flat. But, other friends also who are particularly new, my advice is to hold firm and live life as normal as possible. Days are dark; days are sunny. In such situation, harvesting happiness is what we should concentrate on. Today, all my companies are going down except one. I am proud of that one particular company. For other companies too, I have sympathy. Without any fault of theirs, they have been suffering. Cure is there and they would start jumping one day when the environment would help them to flourish. May be, I am a diehard optimist, I am not sure.
Friday, November 14, 2014
Use of facebook
Rajesh Sharma
My comment on Ramesh Poudel ji's post on using facebook.
It is difficult to define the term 'productive'. An unproductive act for one person could be very productive for another person. Hence, generalization makes the term ambiguous. If you ask me, gathering information, filtering and processing them and utilizing those information while making decisions is also a productive activity and social networking sites such as facebook are useful sources of information and good platform for debate, dialogue and sharing. However, I agree with Ramesh Poudel ji it will not add value if we have problems in setting objectives for use of such platform. The objectives could be simply building relationships/friendships or networking for businesses or making and strengthening access to power.
It is difficult to define the term 'productive'. An unproductive act for one person could be very productive for another person. Hence, generalization makes the term ambiguous. If you ask me, gathering information, filtering and processing them and utilizing those information while making decisions is also a productive activity and social networking sites such as facebook are useful sources of information and good platform for debate, dialogue and sharing. However, I agree with Ramesh Poudel ji it will not add value if we have problems in setting objectives for use of such platform. The objectives could be simply building relationships/friendships or networking for businesses or making and strengthening access to power.
Wednesday, November 12, 2014
Market astrologers, Company vulnarability
Rajesh Sharma
I like to share 2 points.
1. Now, we could see several share market astrologers, who are busy predicting the NEPSE index for immediate future. They do not provide any supporting facts, data, credible logic or technical analysis. Simply they say the index will go down or up to xx figures such as 650, 700, 900, 950 etc. These predictions are simply their wishful thinking. Let's leave them happy and throw such predictions not supported by any technical analysis, into a dustbin.
I like to share 2 points.
1. Now, we could see several share market astrologers, who are busy predicting the NEPSE index for immediate future. They do not provide any supporting facts, data, credible logic or technical analysis. Simply they say the index will go down or up to xx figures such as 650, 700, 900, 950 etc. These predictions are simply their wishful thinking. Let's leave them happy and throw such predictions not supported by any technical analysis, into a dustbin.
2. In Nepali share
market, we simply focus on operational factors including company's
tangible performance. However, most of the time, looking at intangibles
offers useful insights. Among such intangible factors, one is
vulnerability assessment. The companies are many, particularly in
banking sector that includes commercial banks, development banks,
finance companies and micro finance companies. Many among them are
either run by business houses or retire business/banking
professionals/elites. We have only few public limited companies of real
meaning of the phrase. We have good business houses and notorious
business houses running the show. Similarly, we have companies that have
no spinal chord, and if there is any, that is diseased.
For next year, if the situation does not change dramatically, we may see a good number of companies in red zone. The excessive or unsustainable bonus share or rights shares may increase their obligations and they may fail to meet share holders expectations. For this reason, we should see the vulnerability factors of any company before making investment for long time. Seeing anarchic environment in Nepal, this is absolutely necessary for the long term investors. Gone are the days when courage, luck and gut feelings were enough to make investment decisions.
For next year, if the situation does not change dramatically, we may see a good number of companies in red zone. The excessive or unsustainable bonus share or rights shares may increase their obligations and they may fail to meet share holders expectations. For this reason, we should see the vulnerability factors of any company before making investment for long time. Seeing anarchic environment in Nepal, this is absolutely necessary for the long term investors. Gone are the days when courage, luck and gut feelings were enough to make investment decisions.
Sunday, November 9, 2014
Subdued NEPSE and BT
Rajesh Sharma
May be, I am a bit off the track of facts, I don't know. But, I still strongly believe that the decrease in NEPSE is primarily due to BT. Till the big traders including such brokers will clean their store, the market would be in subdued state. They may even push further the implementation of CDS by another 3 months if they need to do that. We are living in an anarchic environment and such thing could happen quite often. Hence, we have to plan accordingly.
May be, I am a bit off the track of facts, I don't know. But, I still strongly believe that the decrease in NEPSE is primarily due to BT. Till the big traders including such brokers will clean their store, the market would be in subdued state. They may even push further the implementation of CDS by another 3 months if they need to do that. We are living in an anarchic environment and such thing could happen quite often. Hence, we have to plan accordingly.
Bonus/Rights shares
Rajesh Sharma
Slowly, there is increasing awareness about the impact of bonus share/right shares. Traders still think that the higher the better. But, slowly the investors have started to see the impact for next year. Hence, there is growing realization that the higher percentage of bonus/right shares without any solid growth plan/environment may play highly negatively over the performance of the company.
Slowly, there is increasing awareness about the impact of bonus share/right shares. Traders still think that the higher the better. But, slowly the investors have started to see the impact for next year. Hence, there is growing realization that the higher percentage of bonus/right shares without any solid growth plan/environment may play highly negatively over the performance of the company.
Friday, November 7, 2014
CHCL's right share and Sabidhan and Market
Rajesh Sharma
My comment on Gautamraj Rai ji's post about Chilime's rights share and further discussions on it.
I have two points to share.
1. CHCL rights share: I am not so hopeful. However, CHCL could stand on its firm footing without making additional attractions like rights shares. Hence, neither I believe that all of the sudden it will jump up or fall down. My expectation is that it would move up gradually from this price level.
My comment on Gautamraj Rai ji's post about Chilime's rights share and further discussions on it.
I have two points to share.
1. CHCL rights share: I am not so hopeful. However, CHCL could stand on its firm footing without making additional attractions like rights shares. Hence, neither I believe that all of the sudden it will jump up or fall down. My expectation is that it would move up gradually from this price level.
2. Sambidhan and
market: The effects is there when the result is not out. Hence, we may
have still some turmoil but that would be before Magh 8. Those who could
not take further risk will sell when there is enough time for them to
sell. Those who will retain fully being aware that there may not be
constitution they will hold even after Magh 8. The institutional
investors will hold large part of their holding anyway as that would be
only a better option for them. A few undecided ones may not create that
much impact. Immunity and resistance will keep market continuing rather
than falling down. Only, getting bankrupt macro economic factors and
heavily deteriorated company's performance could bring disaster in the
market other than the situation of war. That is not the case at all.
Hence, my understanding is that we have two more difficult months remaining due to uncertainties of the political course and anticipation of CDS implementation. By Magh 8, such uncertainties would be cleared positively or negatively or the status quo would continue. Therefore, the market will go on as usual - some high or some low, even if there would not be a constitution by Magh 8.
Hence, my understanding is that we have two more difficult months remaining due to uncertainties of the political course and anticipation of CDS implementation. By Magh 8, such uncertainties would be cleared positively or negatively or the status quo would continue. Therefore, the market will go on as usual - some high or some low, even if there would not be a constitution by Magh 8.
Monday, November 3, 2014
NEPSE Index in the last six months
Rajesh Sharma
NEPSE Index
Six month
2014.5.4 830.71
2014. 11.3 904.03
Change: 73.32
Highest
2014. 7. 21 1083.55
Yes, the index has come down quite heavily; however, it is not that bad as it has been perceived. In six months, the index has moved up by 8.83%.
Moreover, it has absorbed the effect of bonus share of many companies. which had book closure.
NEPSE Index
Six month
2014.5.4 830.71
2014. 11.3 904.03
Change: 73.32
Highest
2014. 7. 21 1083.55
Yes, the index has come down quite heavily; however, it is not that bad as it has been perceived. In six months, the index has moved up by 8.83%.
Moreover, it has absorbed the effect of bonus share of many companies. which had book closure.
Sunday, November 2, 2014
Chilime's falling share price
Rajesh Sharma
My comment on Haku Cha ji's post about CHCL's price fall
All major hydro-power companies are in growth mode. These companies are not banks and they have two models - individual company or conglomerate. Chilime, BPCL, AHPC etc are following the second model. Many other companies also may move to this model when they grow or enter into smaller projects too. These companies need time to perform hence are for long-term investment.
CHLC, BPCL or AHPC all three companies have come down in share price. The factors could be many and different. For CHCL, Ghising factor added to its speed in climb down. Our market is too sensitive even to not so important factors.
My comment on Haku Cha ji's post about CHCL's price fall
All major hydro-power companies are in growth mode. These companies are not banks and they have two models - individual company or conglomerate. Chilime, BPCL, AHPC etc are following the second model. Many other companies also may move to this model when they grow or enter into smaller projects too. These companies need time to perform hence are for long-term investment.
CHLC, BPCL or AHPC all three companies have come down in share price. The factors could be many and different. For CHCL, Ghising factor added to its speed in climb down. Our market is too sensitive even to not so important factors.
Hence, CHCL, BPCL and AHPC are going through a lean phase due to
peripheral factors and their fundamentals are still sound. When the
market would start moving up, these companies could be in first line to
book the ticket to climb up.
Note: This is my opinion and you please analyze yourself.
Note: This is my opinion and you please analyze yourself.
Friday, October 31, 2014
What I take into consideration, when I buy shares or make investment
Rajesh Sharma
What I take into consideration, when I buy shares or make investment
1. Company: This is the most important factor. If everything goes wrong but company survives with credible strength, there is hope. First and foremost, I like to make my primary investment safe and secure. In the market, always there is risk, but risk calculation protects to a large extent. Hence, overall credibility of the company, its past history, it's standing in the industry and growth prospects are main factors I look into about a company.
2. Return: When I invest, I set some bench marks for return with timeline. My expectation of return use to be quite modest. Anything beyond is bonus. Example, my expectation from SCB was 10% bonus (this expectation I had shared in my previous posts before declaration of dividend) and cash as it generally provides 30-45%. Beyond this, used to be my additional bonus. SCB gave more or less and I am ok with that return. Hence, as an investor, always I try to be reasonable with the company. Even sometime, the company dos not meet my expectation. Example, SBL. With a higher EPS, my expectation was bonus shares 15% and cash 20%. The return SBL declared was too low, but still it was much higher than the bank interest rate on time deposit. I decided to hold. The same was true with NBB.
3. Investment vs. trading: Primarily, I invest for a longer period of time and put my 80% plus money buying shares of relatively safe and secure companies. And, I do trading occasionally with that 20% amount left. Trading has been dominating Nepali share market and wild speculation fueled by rumors makes market behaving strangely. Those who could go with trends whether it is fueled by strategy of certain big traders or just result of rumors, you could perhaps survive. But, for them who believe in a company and its fundamentals, it is not that easy to follow the trend. Hence, I have not been that much good to make decisions regarding trading. Hence, I am thinking to discontinue trading completely. Now, I have realized that these two are different professions and need different qualities.
4. Risk management: Even in good companies, there are factors that need making you active and informed. All of sudden Enron Empire disappeared. Therefore, this risk management is not a one time business but a continuous process. As long as you hold shares of a company, you have to keep watch on it. Updating risk level with new information makes investors different from the crowd holding certain IPO shares and disappearing in the wilderness. Hence, whether I stop trading or not, I will stay active in the market – studying, watching, learning and updating always. This is what I believe is a better risk management approach.
5. Use of technology: This is the age of information. Technology enables to make informed decisions. Hence, as part of my education program, I always try to get access to new technology and try to enhance technical skills. A laptop and a smart phone have become necessary gadgets for investors and traders. Language skills always keep us in advantageous position and learning language skills is not as difficult as it is thought.
6. Getting emancipation from rumors, tricks and VEJA fries: Many people, particularly the big speculators in our market sell rumors before they buy or sell shares. Hence, I have made a rule that "knowing a source and its credibility" before believing or acting on it. Though, we could not prevent rumors and tricks, but liberation from them as far as possible is absolutely necessary to survive and flourish in the market.
7. Being aware of being one sided: A company in a given situation could seem good but from long term perspective that may not be the case. Example, KBL's EPS was 18 and it gave bonus shares of 35% utilizing its reserve. It is great for now and could be great if we trade on. But for investment, we should look beyond. Therefore, I try to see the larger picture first before putting that one special factor to examine. My belief is that we should look at any object, issue or person keeping our perspective as wholesome as possible.
Note: This note is a compilation of my answers to friends sent through message box.
1. Company: This is the most important factor. If everything goes wrong but company survives with credible strength, there is hope. First and foremost, I like to make my primary investment safe and secure. In the market, always there is risk, but risk calculation protects to a large extent. Hence, overall credibility of the company, its past history, it's standing in the industry and growth prospects are main factors I look into about a company.
2. Return: When I invest, I set some bench marks for return with timeline. My expectation of return use to be quite modest. Anything beyond is bonus. Example, my expectation from SCB was 10% bonus (this expectation I had shared in my previous posts before declaration of dividend) and cash as it generally provides 30-45%. Beyond this, used to be my additional bonus. SCB gave more or less and I am ok with that return. Hence, as an investor, always I try to be reasonable with the company. Even sometime, the company dos not meet my expectation. Example, SBL. With a higher EPS, my expectation was bonus shares 15% and cash 20%. The return SBL declared was too low, but still it was much higher than the bank interest rate on time deposit. I decided to hold. The same was true with NBB.
3. Investment vs. trading: Primarily, I invest for a longer period of time and put my 80% plus money buying shares of relatively safe and secure companies. And, I do trading occasionally with that 20% amount left. Trading has been dominating Nepali share market and wild speculation fueled by rumors makes market behaving strangely. Those who could go with trends whether it is fueled by strategy of certain big traders or just result of rumors, you could perhaps survive. But, for them who believe in a company and its fundamentals, it is not that easy to follow the trend. Hence, I have not been that much good to make decisions regarding trading. Hence, I am thinking to discontinue trading completely. Now, I have realized that these two are different professions and need different qualities.
4. Risk management: Even in good companies, there are factors that need making you active and informed. All of sudden Enron Empire disappeared. Therefore, this risk management is not a one time business but a continuous process. As long as you hold shares of a company, you have to keep watch on it. Updating risk level with new information makes investors different from the crowd holding certain IPO shares and disappearing in the wilderness. Hence, whether I stop trading or not, I will stay active in the market – studying, watching, learning and updating always. This is what I believe is a better risk management approach.
5. Use of technology: This is the age of information. Technology enables to make informed decisions. Hence, as part of my education program, I always try to get access to new technology and try to enhance technical skills. A laptop and a smart phone have become necessary gadgets for investors and traders. Language skills always keep us in advantageous position and learning language skills is not as difficult as it is thought.
6. Getting emancipation from rumors, tricks and VEJA fries: Many people, particularly the big speculators in our market sell rumors before they buy or sell shares. Hence, I have made a rule that "knowing a source and its credibility" before believing or acting on it. Though, we could not prevent rumors and tricks, but liberation from them as far as possible is absolutely necessary to survive and flourish in the market.
7. Being aware of being one sided: A company in a given situation could seem good but from long term perspective that may not be the case. Example, KBL's EPS was 18 and it gave bonus shares of 35% utilizing its reserve. It is great for now and could be great if we trade on. But for investment, we should look beyond. Therefore, I try to see the larger picture first before putting that one special factor to examine. My belief is that we should look at any object, issue or person keeping our perspective as wholesome as possible.
Note: This note is a compilation of my answers to friends sent through message box.
Thursday, October 30, 2014
BPCL in some difficulty?
Rajesh Sharma
Sounds some difficulty for BPCL after Akhtiyar's instruction to cancel Kabeli license. May be, they will renew the license as World Bank and IFC are involved but certainly the tempo of implementation would face some road blocks. Those who have bought for long term may not, perhaps, be affected but for short term investors, it would be difficult to exit on their term. Regarding dividend, I have no idea, Hari Kc ji.
Note: Here, I use the term "long term" for more than 5 years. However, more than 3 years is also relatively long term in markets like ours where traders have been dominating heavily.
Sounds some difficulty for BPCL after Akhtiyar's instruction to cancel Kabeli license. May be, they will renew the license as World Bank and IFC are involved but certainly the tempo of implementation would face some road blocks. Those who have bought for long term may not, perhaps, be affected but for short term investors, it would be difficult to exit on their term. Regarding dividend, I have no idea, Hari Kc ji.
Note: Here, I use the term "long term" for more than 5 years. However, more than 3 years is also relatively long term in markets like ours where traders have been dominating heavily.
Monday, October 27, 2014
H & B Development Bank
Rajesh Sharma
My comment on Jyoti Dahal ji's post on FB's Fundamental and Technical Analyisis
I think, H&B is a lead company in "high risk, high gain" group. If it could recover the bad loan and could settle the court case regarding manager's check issue, it will bounce back. And, if it will fail to do so, the company will continue to be in difficulty. NRB sounds convinced that from now on at least the deposit of the clients is safe. If it hands over the management to the new board elected by the AGM, the risk would be much less as it would show NRB's confidence on the new management of the company.
My comment on Jyoti Dahal ji's post on FB's Fundamental and Technical Analyisis
I think, H&B is a lead company in "high risk, high gain" group. If it could recover the bad loan and could settle the court case regarding manager's check issue, it will bounce back. And, if it will fail to do so, the company will continue to be in difficulty. NRB sounds convinced that from now on at least the deposit of the clients is safe. If it hands over the management to the new board elected by the AGM, the risk would be much less as it would show NRB's confidence on the new management of the company.
Malpractices from the brokers?
Rajesh Sharma
My comment on RN Pradhan ji's post on malpractices from the brokers
Probably, some brokers do strange 'buy' or 'sell'. But, Pradhan ji, a large majority of them do their job exactly as brokers - fair and professional. Hence, let's not generalize it. The second factor is that there are players and manipulators in the market and they may not be necessarily brokers. Hence, we should see them as manipulators together with a few such brokers. However, we could over come the ill effects of such malpractices if we go through floor sheet regularly of the companies we are interested in, if we do not hurry to buy or sell and if we follow logical path when making decisions.
Probably, some brokers do strange 'buy' or 'sell'. But, Pradhan ji, a large majority of them do their job exactly as brokers - fair and professional. Hence, let's not generalize it. The second factor is that there are players and manipulators in the market and they may not be necessarily brokers. Hence, we should see them as manipulators together with a few such brokers. However, we could over come the ill effects of such malpractices if we go through floor sheet regularly of the companies we are interested in, if we do not hurry to buy or sell and if we follow logical path when making decisions.
Share market experts?
Rajesh Sharma
My comment on Sanjay Maharjan ji's post about share market experts.
Interesting and good observation of Kiran Thapa ji.
There are three groups of people in our market. 1) Risk takers (investors, traders), 2) teachers (professors/professionals in for-profit companies) and 3) analysts/experts (paid or unpaid consultants in different covers, instruments of rumor mills, failed investors, part-timers who are interested in small quick bucks and a few true contributors of information and ideas). The first types are achievers or prospective achievers, the second types are knowledge banks but mostly that of past references and values and the third types are a combination of tit-bits with some real contributors in exception.
My comment on Sanjay Maharjan ji's post about share market experts.
Interesting and good observation of Kiran Thapa ji.
There are three groups of people in our market. 1) Risk takers (investors, traders), 2) teachers (professors/professionals in for-profit companies) and 3) analysts/experts (paid or unpaid consultants in different covers, instruments of rumor mills, failed investors, part-timers who are interested in small quick bucks and a few true contributors of information and ideas). The first types are achievers or prospective achievers, the second types are knowledge banks but mostly that of past references and values and the third types are a combination of tit-bits with some real contributors in exception.
Hence, the investors/traders are "fact of life", the teachers are the
jewels but mostly somehow out fashioned and the analysts/experts are
gems but only in exception. Therefore, we should be selective in
collection and processing information and should use inputs in making
decisions with extra care regarding the source of such information.
Time has come to be aware, informed, educated and enlightened if we like to stay and flourish in the market. Days are numbering for them who invest using gut feelings. The more the mature the market, the more we should be competent enough to understand the complexities.
Time has come to be aware, informed, educated and enlightened if we like to stay and flourish in the market. Days are numbering for them who invest using gut feelings. The more the mature the market, the more we should be competent enough to understand the complexities.
People are different, so are the courses reaching to decisionss
Rajesh Sharma
I have received quite a good number of messages from friends who want to know about good companies. Rather than answering individually, I thought to post my answer here.
It depends on four factors. 1) Your strategy (diversification or concentration in one or a few companies) and nature of investment - long term, short term and your current portfolio. 2) Your risk absorption capacity. 3) Your preferred sector and type of companies. And, finally, 4) Scale of your investment or how much money you like to invest. These are internal factors, which matter the most. Without knowing about these factors, it is not so useful to offer advice.
I have received quite a good number of messages from friends who want to know about good companies. Rather than answering individually, I thought to post my answer here.
It depends on four factors. 1) Your strategy (diversification or concentration in one or a few companies) and nature of investment - long term, short term and your current portfolio. 2) Your risk absorption capacity. 3) Your preferred sector and type of companies. And, finally, 4) Scale of your investment or how much money you like to invest. These are internal factors, which matter the most. Without knowing about these factors, it is not so useful to offer advice.
And, the companies come afterward as essential factors to know about.
For this, the quick and easy way is to analyze financial statements. If
it is for long term, fundamental analysis helps to select companies and
for short term, technical analysis offers insights. For trading,
generally, trend is your friend and capital gain is the primary goal.
And, for investment, it is the company that pays you and the dividend
and growth of the company are the primary motivational factors together
with capital gain.
Investment decisions are different and unique as they start with "you", "we" and "I"
Rajesh Sharma
In my understanding, investment starts from "you", "we" and "I" and not from any company. This is the most important beginning of a process and without going through this process, it is difficult to reach to any logical investment decision. The investment in a company, hence, is the result of that selection process.
In my understanding, investment starts from "you", "we" and "I" and not from any company. This is the most important beginning of a process and without going through this process, it is difficult to reach to any logical investment decision. The investment in a company, hence, is the result of that selection process.
Sunday, October 26, 2014
BPCL: Why a single borker is selling most of its shares?
Rajesh Sharma
I have been following for sometime the floor sheet of BPCL. Broker number 10 has been selling all or nearly all shares everyday. The buying brokers are diverse. The transaction is also quite heavy seeing BPCL's average transaction. The price is on lower side. Any friend has any specific information or idea? If so, please share.
I have been following for sometime the floor sheet of BPCL. Broker number 10 has been selling all or nearly all shares everyday. The buying brokers are diverse. The transaction is also quite heavy seeing BPCL's average transaction. The price is on lower side. Any friend has any specific information or idea? If so, please share.
Welcome Back!
Rajesh Sharma
The dull period in share market due to festivals has been over. People are back and so is their energy. Market may get back its vibrancy. We also should come out of hangover of festivals and should start the regeneration process that is extremely essential to put mind and energy together so as to attain a mental level pervaded by achievement motivation.
The dull period in share market due to festivals has been over. People are back and so is their energy. Market may get back its vibrancy. We also should come out of hangover of festivals and should start the regeneration process that is extremely essential to put mind and energy together so as to attain a mental level pervaded by achievement motivation.
Tuesday, October 14, 2014
Who benefits by delaying CDS implementation?
Rajesh Sharma
My note on Sunita Chetri ji's comments on my post regarding delay in CDS implementation.
Sunita ji,
Good question. Let's see who benefits by delaying CDS implementation?
1. The big individual players, most of the time, buy without paying, get the documents in 3-4 days, put it in BT. Sell the shares in another 3-4 days. Get money in another 3-4 days and pay for the shares they had purchased. Hence, the BIG players who buy and sell without making payment, they will get benefit surprisingly. The brokers wait seeing the commission they get in the larger transactions.
2. If you or I buy and make payment the next day, the party who sold his/her share will get the payment after 10 days so in practice. Some lucky ones get in seven days but that is exception. The brokers could play with that transiting money for about a week, enough time to buy and sell for them. In this way, they also earn using our money in transit.
3. Many times you could see the brokers are out for transaction for certain days.. This happens primarily when something their tailor-made process get road blocks, though in some case and some times there could be some genuine causes.
4. CDS will wipe out this interval and will transfer money account to account, and then the play that uses money-in-transit will end.
5. The average daily transaction during the last couple of months is above 50 corers. By being highly conservative, at least 20% of that money is that of small investors. It means the daily average is 10 corers. If the brokers could hold for 7 days, it is 50 corers per week (minus Fridays Saturdays) and the cycle continues. This is not a small amount.
6. Hence, the beneficiary BIG players including big traders and the playing/colluding brokers (not all brokers) are against the CDS.
7. Besides, there could be several other parts of their modus operandi, for which other friends may be better informed.
Sunita ji,
Good question. Let's see who benefits by delaying CDS implementation?
1. The big individual players, most of the time, buy without paying, get the documents in 3-4 days, put it in BT. Sell the shares in another 3-4 days. Get money in another 3-4 days and pay for the shares they had purchased. Hence, the BIG players who buy and sell without making payment, they will get benefit surprisingly. The brokers wait seeing the commission they get in the larger transactions.
2. If you or I buy and make payment the next day, the party who sold his/her share will get the payment after 10 days so in practice. Some lucky ones get in seven days but that is exception. The brokers could play with that transiting money for about a week, enough time to buy and sell for them. In this way, they also earn using our money in transit.
3. Many times you could see the brokers are out for transaction for certain days.. This happens primarily when something their tailor-made process get road blocks, though in some case and some times there could be some genuine causes.
4. CDS will wipe out this interval and will transfer money account to account, and then the play that uses money-in-transit will end.
5. The average daily transaction during the last couple of months is above 50 corers. By being highly conservative, at least 20% of that money is that of small investors. It means the daily average is 10 corers. If the brokers could hold for 7 days, it is 50 corers per week (minus Fridays Saturdays) and the cycle continues. This is not a small amount.
6. Hence, the beneficiary BIG players including big traders and the playing/colluding brokers (not all brokers) are against the CDS.
7. Besides, there could be several other parts of their modus operandi, for which other friends may be better informed.
Sunday, October 12, 2014
Why again CDS implementaion could be delayed?
Rajesh Sharma
In many forums, I read comments by several friends that the proposal to delay implementation of CDS made by CDSCL is hopeless, NALAYAKI, and etc. etc. But, I think it is not so. The major factor here should be bumper gift, which is called bribe in plain English. The cartels and syndicates, individually or collectively should have offered such gifts to officials and executives and they successfully got or are in a process of getting the implementation delayed. CDS may play a spoiler for their modus operandi. Hence, I believe that this is a willfully done planned design and if they succeed now they may repeat the same in Baisakh also. It is a pity that we are passing through an anarchic phase in all areas including but not limited to politics, economy and so on.
In many forums, I read comments by several friends that the proposal to delay implementation of CDS made by CDSCL is hopeless, NALAYAKI, and etc. etc. But, I think it is not so. The major factor here should be bumper gift, which is called bribe in plain English. The cartels and syndicates, individually or collectively should have offered such gifts to officials and executives and they successfully got or are in a process of getting the implementation delayed. CDS may play a spoiler for their modus operandi. Hence, I believe that this is a willfully done planned design and if they succeed now they may repeat the same in Baisakh also. It is a pity that we are passing through an anarchic phase in all areas including but not limited to politics, economy and so on.
The bonus/rights share effect
Rajesh Sharma
The bonus/rights share effect
The short term investors/traders could celebrate higher bonus/rights shares from a company as for them it may give good capital gain in a bonus/rights share crazy market environment. But for long term investors the same may not be true. Added capital demands growth for absorption of such fund to provide better return for the investors. However, our companies, particularly the BFIs are facing situation of excess liquidity/limited growth prospect.
For sustainable growth, the BFIs, which form the largest percentage in weight in NEPSE, need financially viable projects, competent human resource, business friendly environment, where there is political stability and economic growth and technological/technical/managerial capacity. This is possible gradually. Hence, in banking sector higher percentage of bonus/rights shares may not be something an issue to rejoice and celebrate for the long term investors.
The bonus/rights share effect
The short term investors/traders could celebrate higher bonus/rights shares from a company as for them it may give good capital gain in a bonus/rights share crazy market environment. But for long term investors the same may not be true. Added capital demands growth for absorption of such fund to provide better return for the investors. However, our companies, particularly the BFIs are facing situation of excess liquidity/limited growth prospect.
For sustainable growth, the BFIs, which form the largest percentage in weight in NEPSE, need financially viable projects, competent human resource, business friendly environment, where there is political stability and economic growth and technological/technical/managerial capacity. This is possible gradually. Hence, in banking sector higher percentage of bonus/rights shares may not be something an issue to rejoice and celebrate for the long term investors.
The excess money was a major problem in the banking system last year.
This year also it has been continuing. How the BFIs will use the
additional money generated as bonus/rights shares will make a big
difference in regard to the return in coming years.
Therefore, friends, who are long term investors should consider more fundamental factors before investment rather than limiting to percentage of bonus/rights shares the companies are declaring. But for short term investors who invest for less than a year in a company or for the traders the percentage of bonus/rights shares could be a good motivation still.
Therefore, friends, who are long term investors should consider more fundamental factors before investment rather than limiting to percentage of bonus/rights shares the companies are declaring. But for short term investors who invest for less than a year in a company or for the traders the percentage of bonus/rights shares could be a good motivation still.
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
KBL, NCCB up, SBL, NBB down!
Rajesh Sharma
KBL and NCCB up and SBL and NBB down. Why such things happen? Is it only due to bonus shares? I am really surprised seeing the behavior of the market. All are not fools who purchased shares of 20 corers of KBL in 2 days and more than 10 corers of NCCB shares in a single day. What could be the reasons, other than bonus shares? Why SBL and NBB are so subdued? All are not wise who are selling SBL and NBB at this throw away price. Hence, this is another interesting part to know.
Perhaps, not fundamental analysis nor technical analysis nor even market sentiment work in Nepali share market. There could be some other interesting factors that we do not know.
KBL and NCCB up and SBL and NBB down. Why such things happen? Is it only due to bonus shares? I am really surprised seeing the behavior of the market. All are not fools who purchased shares of 20 corers of KBL in 2 days and more than 10 corers of NCCB shares in a single day. What could be the reasons, other than bonus shares? Why SBL and NBB are so subdued? All are not wise who are selling SBL and NBB at this throw away price. Hence, this is another interesting part to know.
Perhaps, not fundamental analysis nor technical analysis nor even market sentiment work in Nepali share market. There could be some other interesting factors that we do not know.
I most sincerely invite friends to list those factors that they believe vital to affect market behavior in Nepal.
P. S. Comparison of some useful indicators:
KBL: EPS 18.65 P/E: 28.75, Networth: 163, NPL: 3.19
NCCB: EPS 25.61 P/E: 25.07, Networth: 178.95, NPL: 2.07
SBL: EPS 43.64 P/E: 18.65, Networth: 181.62, NPL: 1.69
NBB: EPS 35 P/E: 20, Networth: 197, NPL: 1.35
P. S. Comparison of some useful indicators:
KBL: EPS 18.65 P/E: 28.75, Networth: 163, NPL: 3.19
NCCB: EPS 25.61 P/E: 25.07, Networth: 178.95, NPL: 2.07
SBL: EPS 43.64 P/E: 18.65, Networth: 181.62, NPL: 1.69
NBB: EPS 35 P/E: 20, Networth: 197, NPL: 1.35
Tuesday, September 16, 2014
Under Developed market: Merger and Bonus/right shares as criteria of a good company!
Rajesh Sharma
My comment on Utsab Shrestha ji's status
Utsab ji,
I had written a post in September 14 and had posted it on Small Investor's Creative Ideas. I have re-posted here once again. Hopefully, that will answer your query at least partly. Moreover, I add here that many among us, we are emotionally immature, temperamentally unstable and educationally (about share market) weak. Hence, our overall reasoning for judgement has a narrow base - merger and bonus/rights share. We are operating in an under developed market and all of us should acknowledge such operational environment. Having said this, I have copied and pasted my text from Small Investor's Creative Ideas.
"Bonus shares
When I read announcement of dividend by a company, in my mind some classification baskets use to appear. If the percentage of bonus share is quite high, thinking that this may affect next year's performance if the company has no good growth prospect or plan, automatically my mind puts that company shares in basket 1. If it is a good mix and sounds not overloading the company for next year, I put it in basket 2. If the the bonus share percentage is too low and the company is too good, I put it in basket 3 and finally if there is no bonus share and there is only cash dividend, I put it in basket 4.
Keys:
Basket 1 = sell soon, in normal time; bonus crazy traders/investors are ready to pay any price right now.
Basket 2 = Hold for 6 months at least, see how things move and decide.
Basket 3 = Hold for long term. Low return but safe and sustainable.
Basket 4 = There is compulsion for now to hold but see opportunity to sell sometime in future.
I may be right or wrong I do not know, but often my mind asks me to do so."
My comment on Utsab Shrestha ji's status
Utsab ji,
I had written a post in September 14 and had posted it on Small Investor's Creative Ideas. I have re-posted here once again. Hopefully, that will answer your query at least partly. Moreover, I add here that many among us, we are emotionally immature, temperamentally unstable and educationally (about share market) weak. Hence, our overall reasoning for judgement has a narrow base - merger and bonus/rights share. We are operating in an under developed market and all of us should acknowledge such operational environment. Having said this, I have copied and pasted my text from Small Investor's Creative Ideas.
"Bonus shares
When I read announcement of dividend by a company, in my mind some classification baskets use to appear. If the percentage of bonus share is quite high, thinking that this may affect next year's performance if the company has no good growth prospect or plan, automatically my mind puts that company shares in basket 1. If it is a good mix and sounds not overloading the company for next year, I put it in basket 2. If the the bonus share percentage is too low and the company is too good, I put it in basket 3 and finally if there is no bonus share and there is only cash dividend, I put it in basket 4.
Keys:
Basket 1 = sell soon, in normal time; bonus crazy traders/investors are ready to pay any price right now.
Basket 2 = Hold for 6 months at least, see how things move and decide.
Basket 3 = Hold for long term. Low return but safe and sustainable.
Basket 4 = There is compulsion for now to hold but see opportunity to sell sometime in future.
I may be right or wrong I do not know, but often my mind asks me to do so."
Saturday, September 13, 2014
EBL and CHCL
Rajesh Sharma
I
have received a few quarries (almost 11 and plus 3 by now), why I feel
EBL is a better company to invest now. You know, there is a story.
One Russian Engineer was working in Dhalkebar-Pathlaiya section of the East-West highway. Once, he saw a large bull (a 'holly bull' called Sandhe Goru in Nepali) and imminently saliva started to fill his mouth just by thinking that the beef of that bull, roasted and served to him would be extremely tasty. He shared his opinion to his Nepali friend and asked to find out the owner of that bull and get it from him at any price. His Nepali friend explained and warned him if people knew his intention, he will be beaten severely. The Russian Engineer said, "Oh, No." But, every time when he was seeing the bull, he could not control saliva filling his mouth. The same is true to EBL.
Last time too people were angry from its proposal of dividend. But the price reached to 2700 from around 1700 at the time of dividend declaration that had fallen by about 200 Rs immediately. Please wait and see next time, again its price may go above 4000 during the time of dividend and it will again give us 10% bonus shares. Therefore, this is like that big and healthy bull that every Russian wishes to fill his or her stomach with its roasted beef. But, the bull walks away every time unharmed.
Hence, I feel, this as a buy share for investors now looking at its price.
P. S. I will not write separately. But, CHCL is far better than EBL in giving us dividend. This time around, though its EPS was lower but it gave good dividend. Hence, for friends who have asked me question, I think, CHCL has done justice.
One Russian Engineer was working in Dhalkebar-Pathlaiya section of the East-West highway. Once, he saw a large bull (a 'holly bull' called Sandhe Goru in Nepali) and imminently saliva started to fill his mouth just by thinking that the beef of that bull, roasted and served to him would be extremely tasty. He shared his opinion to his Nepali friend and asked to find out the owner of that bull and get it from him at any price. His Nepali friend explained and warned him if people knew his intention, he will be beaten severely. The Russian Engineer said, "Oh, No." But, every time when he was seeing the bull, he could not control saliva filling his mouth. The same is true to EBL.
Last time too people were angry from its proposal of dividend. But the price reached to 2700 from around 1700 at the time of dividend declaration that had fallen by about 200 Rs immediately. Please wait and see next time, again its price may go above 4000 during the time of dividend and it will again give us 10% bonus shares. Therefore, this is like that big and healthy bull that every Russian wishes to fill his or her stomach with its roasted beef. But, the bull walks away every time unharmed.
Hence, I feel, this as a buy share for investors now looking at its price.
P. S. I will not write separately. But, CHCL is far better than EBL in giving us dividend. This time around, though its EPS was lower but it gave good dividend. Hence, for friends who have asked me question, I think, CHCL has done justice.
Business Advisory for the week starting from September 14, 2014
This week, we may see the turn around in the market. All regulators have shown concern and have signaled that they will act if some vested interest groups try to create abnormal situation.
The Finance Minister also has shown his concern about the volatility in the market and has said that he will depute an officer to keep eyes over the market.
The worst culprit of the panic this time - the NRB also might have learned a lesson as its headless bureaucrats and "hand-in-glove" type officials cum share market players brought bad name to it in an unprecedented scale, manner and intensity. If Governor Khatiwada himself is a big market manipulator and beneficiary of such manipulation, there could be still harmful policy interference from NRB. Otherwise, the NRB will learn to behave after such severe criticism and loss of face.
The manipulators themselves must have bled a little and such concerted action from their part also will be much less at least immediately. The CDS is very close to come into practice and these manipulators will not dare to venture in such mission before they discover the ways that would help them to exploit.
The big 6 brokers also, may be, have cleared their BTs shares (purchased and hold by themselves in strict sense of ethics "illegal") by now.
The dividend percentages the companies announcing are encouraging except EBL.
All negative factors loosing their strengths and positive factors strengthening, I believe, the market must go up.
Personally, I am in favor of gradual increase of the market - no circuit breaks. These circuit breaks are welcome once in a blue moon, but they invite unnecessary turmoils in the market. Hence, if there is sustainable growth - gradual, nearly covering all sectors, is what we should be happy with.
Sector-wise, insurance may remain a bit volatile, hydro-power recovering a bit and BFIs including commercial banks, development banks and finance companies may go up. Many MFIs have become a bit glamor companies and may remain volatile like most of the insurgence companies.
May be, some profitable companies to buy for the investors: CHCL, SBL, NBB, EBL etc
For traders: It is better to wait a few days to understand the trend clearly.
OVER ALL: BUY/HOLD.
The Finance Minister also has shown his concern about the volatility in the market and has said that he will depute an officer to keep eyes over the market.
The worst culprit of the panic this time - the NRB also might have learned a lesson as its headless bureaucrats and "hand-in-glove" type officials cum share market players brought bad name to it in an unprecedented scale, manner and intensity. If Governor Khatiwada himself is a big market manipulator and beneficiary of such manipulation, there could be still harmful policy interference from NRB. Otherwise, the NRB will learn to behave after such severe criticism and loss of face.
The manipulators themselves must have bled a little and such concerted action from their part also will be much less at least immediately. The CDS is very close to come into practice and these manipulators will not dare to venture in such mission before they discover the ways that would help them to exploit.
The big 6 brokers also, may be, have cleared their BTs shares (purchased and hold by themselves in strict sense of ethics "illegal") by now.
The dividend percentages the companies announcing are encouraging except EBL.
All negative factors loosing their strengths and positive factors strengthening, I believe, the market must go up.
Personally, I am in favor of gradual increase of the market - no circuit breaks. These circuit breaks are welcome once in a blue moon, but they invite unnecessary turmoils in the market. Hence, if there is sustainable growth - gradual, nearly covering all sectors, is what we should be happy with.
Sector-wise, insurance may remain a bit volatile, hydro-power recovering a bit and BFIs including commercial banks, development banks and finance companies may go up. Many MFIs have become a bit glamor companies and may remain volatile like most of the insurgence companies.
May be, some profitable companies to buy for the investors: CHCL, SBL, NBB, EBL etc
For traders: It is better to wait a few days to understand the trend clearly.
OVER ALL: BUY/HOLD.
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Buy time continues
Rajesh Sharma
Buy time continues but being very cautious in selecting companies and being moderate in amount of investment.
I have no definite information, but I also believe that yesterday's fall was due to BT clearance and most probably the BTs (in strict ethical sense illegal purchasing and holding of shares by brokers) of about 6 brokers. It may impact positively for long-term health of the market.
Buy time continues but being very cautious in selecting companies and being moderate in amount of investment.
I have no definite information, but I also believe that yesterday's fall was due to BT clearance and most probably the BTs (in strict ethical sense illegal purchasing and holding of shares by brokers) of about 6 brokers. It may impact positively for long-term health of the market.
Difficult time: reasonable moves
Rajesh Sharma
I had bought shares of a company a few days ago. My that money evaporated by 18.9% in a week in paper. After the experience of so many years and studying market so closely, it was not desirable to happen. But it happened as the market is highly unpredictable and ruthless. However, I am still confident that my this investment will give me enough return in a year or so. Hence, I have decided to place another buy order tomorrow. For investors, this may actually be a minting time sitting in a Taxar. But, please be cautious as there is considerable risk involved and do not buy aggressively and do not buy by taking loan or at least do not buy taking loan at higher interest rate.
Posted on Nepse discussion form of Facebook on September 08, 2013
I had bought shares of a company a few days ago. My that money evaporated by 18.9% in a week in paper. After the experience of so many years and studying market so closely, it was not desirable to happen. But it happened as the market is highly unpredictable and ruthless. However, I am still confident that my this investment will give me enough return in a year or so. Hence, I have decided to place another buy order tomorrow. For investors, this may actually be a minting time sitting in a Taxar. But, please be cautious as there is considerable risk involved and do not buy aggressively and do not buy by taking loan or at least do not buy taking loan at higher interest rate.
Posted on Nepse discussion form of Facebook on September 08, 2013
Sunday, September 7, 2014
Too bad the market is so much down!
Rajesh Sharma
Too
bad the market is so much down. The spiral effect of the "1% directive"
from the NRB has hurt Nepali share market so badly. I do not know about
the motivating factors for the NRB bureaucrats, but certainly they are
responsible for this down turn. This is not a normal market correction.
The NRB directive, most probably, brought in collaboration with syndicates and cartels was responsible for creating panic initially among many small investors. Gradually, the panic reached to a level of hysteria that took control over mass market behaviors. And finally, it forced cartels and syndicates out from the seat of influence. I guess, they are also bleeding now.
The NRB directive, most probably, brought in collaboration with syndicates and cartels was responsible for creating panic initially among many small investors. Gradually, the panic reached to a level of hysteria that took control over mass market behaviors. And finally, it forced cartels and syndicates out from the seat of influence. I guess, they are also bleeding now.
Now, particularly the small traders are in life threatening situation
as share market participants. The only way for such people is to hold
shares to keep hope alive, to continue the stay in the market and
ultimately to help, in whatever small way, to revert the course of
continuous downfall. For the investors, it is buy time, some golden
opportunity, if we have the capacity to hold at least for a year or
more.
Traders and Investors
Rajesh Sharma
My answer to Anil Dongol ji's querry on my post
Anil dangol ji,
Traders earn by increasing their turnover by buying low and selling high several times in a given period of time. In case of loss in a stock, they balance it buy making profit through another stock. They take risk - moderate or high. For all this, the personality should have attitudinal toughness, sound analytical ability in calculating risk, high level of familiarity with the market behavior, speculative ability in analyzing trends, good information about companies they focus on trading and above all courage to taking decisions and implementing them on time. If someone has such qualities he or she could succeed in trading.
My answer to Anil Dongol ji's querry on my post
Anil dangol ji,
Traders earn by increasing their turnover by buying low and selling high several times in a given period of time. In case of loss in a stock, they balance it buy making profit through another stock. They take risk - moderate or high. For all this, the personality should have attitudinal toughness, sound analytical ability in calculating risk, high level of familiarity with the market behavior, speculative ability in analyzing trends, good information about companies they focus on trading and above all courage to taking decisions and implementing them on time. If someone has such qualities he or she could succeed in trading.
For investors,
there is a great need of going into details about the strengths and
weaknesses of a company or companies they are interested to invest.
Traders, primarily invest in shares of a company, but investors invest
in a company. They must have a long term business strategy with
contingency plans to cover several "ifs" and "buts". They need patience
as they have to stay in a course for a longer period of time. They are
calculative risk takers and many among them prefer safety and security
for their investment over a fatty return. Therefore, if someone has such
traits and attitudinal preferences that person could succeed as
investor.
For skills, such as managerial, financial and technical skills, if their size of business is large, both traders and investors could utilize services of fund management companies or that of professional people.
Finally, I agree with Ashok Sitoula ji that an investor has better chance to win.
For skills, such as managerial, financial and technical skills, if their size of business is large, both traders and investors could utilize services of fund management companies or that of professional people.
Finally, I agree with Ashok Sitoula ji that an investor has better chance to win.
Saturday, September 6, 2014
Let's be realistic
Rajesh Sharma
If some of us are new and we are having loss in paper, let's consider that probable loss as part of payment of tuition fee to "Nepal share market school of experiential learning." It will make us psychologically strong in future. However, if we hold, there is high chance that we recover the loss or even earn profit.
If some of us are traders and we are in loss in paper, let's accept this as normal cyclic effect and let's turn to short term investors and hold.
If some of us are investors and we are in loss in paper, we have plenty of options. The best one is selling less strong companies and buying more strong companies.
If some of us are new and we are having loss in paper, let's consider that probable loss as part of payment of tuition fee to "Nepal share market school of experiential learning." It will make us psychologically strong in future. However, if we hold, there is high chance that we recover the loss or even earn profit.
If some of us are traders and we are in loss in paper, let's accept this as normal cyclic effect and let's turn to short term investors and hold.
If some of us are investors and we are in loss in paper, we have plenty of options. The best one is selling less strong companies and buying more strong companies.
My previous
experience tells me that we should take risk but in a very calculative
manner. Taking loan and buying shares is not advisable option when there
is no sign what way the market will move. Buying over optimistically
also may be sometimes harmful.
For all, whether we are new, trader or investor; when things are so cloudy, HOLD is the best option. The market, in relative sense, is deep down. But, there are mixed signals. The confidence of small investors has been shaken; big traders also are being seen without any influence and overall, the market is on auto-pilot. Therefore, if we have disposable cash balance in our account or at home, this is best time to buy but being not over optimistic.
This is, in my opinion, best BUY time for small investors but please be calculative and moderate, take quite moderate risk in selecting companies and please buy from your saving only.
WE SHOULD PLAN OUR FUTURE PROSPECTS IN STEPS AND IN GRADUAL PROGRESSION. There is a saying, "ROME WAS NOT BUILT IN ONE DAY".
For all, whether we are new, trader or investor; when things are so cloudy, HOLD is the best option. The market, in relative sense, is deep down. But, there are mixed signals. The confidence of small investors has been shaken; big traders also are being seen without any influence and overall, the market is on auto-pilot. Therefore, if we have disposable cash balance in our account or at home, this is best time to buy but being not over optimistic.
This is, in my opinion, best BUY time for small investors but please be calculative and moderate, take quite moderate risk in selecting companies and please buy from your saving only.
WE SHOULD PLAN OUR FUTURE PROSPECTS IN STEPS AND IN GRADUAL PROGRESSION. There is a saying, "ROME WAS NOT BUILT IN ONE DAY".
Tuesday, September 2, 2014
Nepali share market: some points to think about
Rajesh Sharma
१.
अहिले नेपाली शेयर बजारमा अभूतपूर्व उतार–चढावको समय छ । कमाउनेहरु रमाई
रहेका होलान, गुमाउनेहरु मलीन मुद्रामा शेयर वजारलाई गाली गर्दै होलान र
शेयरका प्रमाणपत्रहरु जतन गरेर राखेर अरु नै धन्दामा तल्लीन भएका वजारमा
अनुपस्थित लगानीकर्ताहरु वेखवर आप्mनो दैनिकीमा व्यस्त होलान । संसार धेरै
ठूलो छ । सवैलाई आप्mना कथाहरु जम्मा गर्न र सफलता एवं असफलताका अनुभवहरु
संकलन गर्ने अवशरहरु उपलव्ध छन् ।
२. वजारमा उर्लिएको नदीले ल्याउने भेल–वाढीदेखी डराउनेहरु वास्तवमा गुमाउनेको लहरमा उभिन पुग्छन् । यो वजार एउटा ठूलो समुद्र जस्तै हो, जहाँ ठूला माछाहरु साना माछालाई खाएरै मोटाउछन् । साना र कमजोर लगानीकर्ताहरुसंग प्रतिस्पर्धाका लागी ज्ञान, शीप र खतराको सामाना गर्ने शाहस हुनु जरुरी छ । ती गुणहरु आफुमा छैनन् भने धेरै गुमाउनुभन्दा अगाडी नै वजारवाट वाहिरिनु राम्रो हुन्छ ।
३. मैले धेरै साथीहरुले वजार माग र आपूर्तीवाट संचालन हुने प्रतिस्पर्धी व्यवस्था भएको ठाउँ हो भन्ने लेखेको कुरा पढेको छु र वोलेको कुरा सुनेको छु । यो आमरुपमा सही पनि हो र विशिष्ट अवस्थामा गलत पनि । जव आकाश खस्न लागेको प्रतीत हुन्छ, संगै रहेको साथीपनि देखिदैन । यो अवस्थामा वजार न प्रतिस्पर्धी रहन्छ, न खुला । हाम्रो जस्तो पुरातन प्रणालीमा संचालनमा रहेको यो वजारमा यस्तो हुनु स्वभाविक पनि हो ।
४. प्रश्न उठ्छ किन राष्टृ वैकले गएको मौद्रिक नीतिसंगै त्यो प्रतिशतवाला प्रवधानको व्यवस्था गरेन? किन उस्ले शुरुमै ३० प्रतिशत जस्ताको तस्तै राखेर त्यसभित्रको १ प्रतिशतको कुरा स्पष्टताका साथ वताएन? किन अरु नियामक निकायहरु शुरुको वजार घटेका दिनहरुमा सकृय देखिएनन? किन राष्टृ वैकको स्पष्टिकरण आयो जव वजारमा धेरै ठूलो संख्यामा शेयरहरुले मालिक परिवर्तन गरि सकेका थिए र नयाँ मालिकहरु वेच–विखनको तयारीमा लाग्न शुरु गरेका थिए? यी सवै कुराहरुले हाम्रो वजार पूर्ण प्रतिस्पर्धा एवं खुला वातावरणमा संचालित छ भन्ने कुरामा संदेह उत्पन्न गराउँछन् । अझ थप कुरा के छ भने यत्रो लामो होहल्ला र तम्तयारीपछि पनि सिडियस किन लागु हुँदैन? किन त्यसका लागि प्रकृयागत कुरामा अल्झाएर राखिएको छ? यस्ले अर्थ मंत्रालय समेतका नियामक निकायहरुका अधिकारीहरुमाथि संदेहका आखाँले हेर्नु परेन र?
५. अहिले धेरै कम्पनीहरुको मूल्य घटेको छ । ती कम्पनीहरुमध्ये धेरै यस्ता कम्पनीहरु छन् जस्को मूल्य घटता आश्चर्य लाग्छ । कम्पनीका आधारभूत सुचकांकहरु सकारात्मक मात्र होइन, उत्साजनक छन्, उनीहरुको नाफा, प्रति शेयर कमाई, जगेडा कोष आदी सवै आकषर््ाक छन् तर मूल्य घटेको छ । देशमा राजनीतिक वातावरणमा तात्वीक अन्तर आएको छैन, आर्थिक रचना डावाडोल भएको छैन र वाह्य आक्रमण वा घनीभूत हस्तक्षेपको अवस्था पनि छैन । यस्तो अवस्थामा तेस्ता कम्पनीहरुका शेयरधनीहरुले किन आप्mनो लगानीको अवस्था नकारात्मक भएको देख्नु परेको हा?
६. यसैले, मेरो आप्mनो निष्कर्श के छ भने हामीसंग यी माथिका व्यवधानले उत्पन्न गर्ने चक्रव्यूहसंग जोगिन सक्ने शीप, कौशल र आँट छ भने हामी यो वजारमा लगातार दृढतापूर्वक डटी रहौ – हाम्रो राम्रो भविष्य छ । त्यस्ता गुण हामीसंग छैनन भने हामी स्वेच्छाले कम नोक्सानीमा वजारवाट वाहिर निस्कौं अथवा त्यति वेलासम्म पर्खौ जहिलेसम्म हामी नाङ्गै निस्कनु पर्ने अवस्थामा पुग्दैनौ । यो सुन्दा तितो लाग्छ, तर वजार निर्मम हुन्छ र अन्तरतत्वमा, यहाँ सवैलाई समान अवशर उपलव्ध छैन । यसैले, वजारमा पसेर निस्कने आँट गर्नु पनि दीर्घकालको हिसावले फलदायी हुनसक्छ ।
यो लामो वक्तव्यवाजी प्रति म आफैपनि दुखी छु तर स्वभावको आम नियन्त्रणमा रहनु पर्ने धर्मपालना गर्ने क्रममा मैले यस्तो कुरा लेख्नु नै प¥यो । संस्कृतमा एउटा श्लोक छ – वादे, वादे जायते तत्ववोध । वाद–विवादले नै ज्ञानको गहिराईसम्म पुगिन्छ । साथीहरुका विचारहरु आउने नै छन् ।
This is my first major attempt to write in Nepali. So, mistakes in typing are many. I thank you most sincerely Nytsal Shrestha ji for your suggestion to use unicode nepali. ( http://www.ashesh.com.np/nepali-unicode.php
http://www.typenepali.com/)
२. वजारमा उर्लिएको नदीले ल्याउने भेल–वाढीदेखी डराउनेहरु वास्तवमा गुमाउनेको लहरमा उभिन पुग्छन् । यो वजार एउटा ठूलो समुद्र जस्तै हो, जहाँ ठूला माछाहरु साना माछालाई खाएरै मोटाउछन् । साना र कमजोर लगानीकर्ताहरुसंग प्रतिस्पर्धाका लागी ज्ञान, शीप र खतराको सामाना गर्ने शाहस हुनु जरुरी छ । ती गुणहरु आफुमा छैनन् भने धेरै गुमाउनुभन्दा अगाडी नै वजारवाट वाहिरिनु राम्रो हुन्छ ।
३. मैले धेरै साथीहरुले वजार माग र आपूर्तीवाट संचालन हुने प्रतिस्पर्धी व्यवस्था भएको ठाउँ हो भन्ने लेखेको कुरा पढेको छु र वोलेको कुरा सुनेको छु । यो आमरुपमा सही पनि हो र विशिष्ट अवस्थामा गलत पनि । जव आकाश खस्न लागेको प्रतीत हुन्छ, संगै रहेको साथीपनि देखिदैन । यो अवस्थामा वजार न प्रतिस्पर्धी रहन्छ, न खुला । हाम्रो जस्तो पुरातन प्रणालीमा संचालनमा रहेको यो वजारमा यस्तो हुनु स्वभाविक पनि हो ।
४. प्रश्न उठ्छ किन राष्टृ वैकले गएको मौद्रिक नीतिसंगै त्यो प्रतिशतवाला प्रवधानको व्यवस्था गरेन? किन उस्ले शुरुमै ३० प्रतिशत जस्ताको तस्तै राखेर त्यसभित्रको १ प्रतिशतको कुरा स्पष्टताका साथ वताएन? किन अरु नियामक निकायहरु शुरुको वजार घटेका दिनहरुमा सकृय देखिएनन? किन राष्टृ वैकको स्पष्टिकरण आयो जव वजारमा धेरै ठूलो संख्यामा शेयरहरुले मालिक परिवर्तन गरि सकेका थिए र नयाँ मालिकहरु वेच–विखनको तयारीमा लाग्न शुरु गरेका थिए? यी सवै कुराहरुले हाम्रो वजार पूर्ण प्रतिस्पर्धा एवं खुला वातावरणमा संचालित छ भन्ने कुरामा संदेह उत्पन्न गराउँछन् । अझ थप कुरा के छ भने यत्रो लामो होहल्ला र तम्तयारीपछि पनि सिडियस किन लागु हुँदैन? किन त्यसका लागि प्रकृयागत कुरामा अल्झाएर राखिएको छ? यस्ले अर्थ मंत्रालय समेतका नियामक निकायहरुका अधिकारीहरुमाथि संदेहका आखाँले हेर्नु परेन र?
५. अहिले धेरै कम्पनीहरुको मूल्य घटेको छ । ती कम्पनीहरुमध्ये धेरै यस्ता कम्पनीहरु छन् जस्को मूल्य घटता आश्चर्य लाग्छ । कम्पनीका आधारभूत सुचकांकहरु सकारात्मक मात्र होइन, उत्साजनक छन्, उनीहरुको नाफा, प्रति शेयर कमाई, जगेडा कोष आदी सवै आकषर््ाक छन् तर मूल्य घटेको छ । देशमा राजनीतिक वातावरणमा तात्वीक अन्तर आएको छैन, आर्थिक रचना डावाडोल भएको छैन र वाह्य आक्रमण वा घनीभूत हस्तक्षेपको अवस्था पनि छैन । यस्तो अवस्थामा तेस्ता कम्पनीहरुका शेयरधनीहरुले किन आप्mनो लगानीको अवस्था नकारात्मक भएको देख्नु परेको हा?
६. यसैले, मेरो आप्mनो निष्कर्श के छ भने हामीसंग यी माथिका व्यवधानले उत्पन्न गर्ने चक्रव्यूहसंग जोगिन सक्ने शीप, कौशल र आँट छ भने हामी यो वजारमा लगातार दृढतापूर्वक डटी रहौ – हाम्रो राम्रो भविष्य छ । त्यस्ता गुण हामीसंग छैनन भने हामी स्वेच्छाले कम नोक्सानीमा वजारवाट वाहिर निस्कौं अथवा त्यति वेलासम्म पर्खौ जहिलेसम्म हामी नाङ्गै निस्कनु पर्ने अवस्थामा पुग्दैनौ । यो सुन्दा तितो लाग्छ, तर वजार निर्मम हुन्छ र अन्तरतत्वमा, यहाँ सवैलाई समान अवशर उपलव्ध छैन । यसैले, वजारमा पसेर निस्कने आँट गर्नु पनि दीर्घकालको हिसावले फलदायी हुनसक्छ ।
यो लामो वक्तव्यवाजी प्रति म आफैपनि दुखी छु तर स्वभावको आम नियन्त्रणमा रहनु पर्ने धर्मपालना गर्ने क्रममा मैले यस्तो कुरा लेख्नु नै प¥यो । संस्कृतमा एउटा श्लोक छ – वादे, वादे जायते तत्ववोध । वाद–विवादले नै ज्ञानको गहिराईसम्म पुगिन्छ । साथीहरुका विचारहरु आउने नै छन् ।
This is my first major attempt to write in Nepali. So, mistakes in typing are many. I thank you most sincerely Nytsal Shrestha ji for your suggestion to use unicode nepali. ( http://www.ashesh.com.np/nepali-unicode.php
http://www.typenepali.com/)
Saturday, August 30, 2014
Business Advisory for the week starting 31 August 2014
Rajesh Sharma
Business Advisory for the week starting 31 August 2014
Overall: BUY/HOLD
I have mentioned a few companies below. The list below is not exclusive. Please do your homework properly before making any investment decision.
Business Advisory for the week starting 31 August 2014
Overall: BUY/HOLD
I have mentioned a few companies below. The list below is not exclusive. Please do your homework properly before making any investment decision.
Best buys for better immediate capital gain: SBL, NBB, Nabil, NICA, NLG, AHPC, TDBL, JFL, HBDL.
Best buys to hold for one year or more: Nabil, EBL, Chilime, SCB, NICA, RMDC, SWBBL, BPCL, CBBL, GBIME, HBDL, GRAND, HBL.
P.S. Friends,
Please suggest which company you think better to buy, hold or sell. If you could give reasons, that would be much better.
Best buys to hold for one year or more: Nabil, EBL, Chilime, SCB, NICA, RMDC, SWBBL, BPCL, CBBL, GBIME, HBDL, GRAND, HBL.
P.S. Friends,
Please suggest which company you think better to buy, hold or sell. If you could give reasons, that would be much better.
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
About Big players in Nepali capital market
Rajesh Sharma
There are questions raised in many forums about BIG players. Some have simply blamed them; some are questioning their existence. Hence, I thought to share my perspective, which is based on my perception/experiential learning.
There are 3 types of Big players here.
1. Cartel of NRB - finance ministry officials. They play with policies. In the recent NRB directives or at least in its ambiguous formulation, these officials played badly. They double as employees and investors.
2. Cartel of a few Big brokers - All brokers do not do share business. A few among them double as investors/traders individually or collectively together with 4-5 brokers. They play with information and procedures. Misinterpretation of policies/procedures/information is what they do to play in the market.
3. Cartel of Big investors/traders - These people help to formulated policies or procedures or even sponsor buying/selling by payment. They have money and they play with that money. There are familiar names in these groups. The informal "New Investor Group" is one among them.
I agree with the comments of many friends that market prices are determined by market forces - demand and supply. But, that happens in free market economy and free market atmosphere. In country like ours, where bottled water and surface transports are run by cartels and government officials patronize them and the leaders have pets in the form of dons; the market forces have limitations in their freedom to function. Hence, while looking at things, we have to differentiate between normal atmosphere and the polluted one and interpret accordingly. Therefore, sometimes here market forces work fairly free and in some other times market forces are just to free in an environment made ready by the clandestine cartels.
P. S.: The above text is my perception based on my experience of past several years. Hence, please take it in that light and not, in any way, as the conclusion of any empirical/quantitative/qualitative research.
There are questions raised in many forums about BIG players. Some have simply blamed them; some are questioning their existence. Hence, I thought to share my perspective, which is based on my perception/experiential learning.
There are 3 types of Big players here.
1. Cartel of NRB - finance ministry officials. They play with policies. In the recent NRB directives or at least in its ambiguous formulation, these officials played badly. They double as employees and investors.
2. Cartel of a few Big brokers - All brokers do not do share business. A few among them double as investors/traders individually or collectively together with 4-5 brokers. They play with information and procedures. Misinterpretation of policies/procedures/information is what they do to play in the market.
3. Cartel of Big investors/traders - These people help to formulated policies or procedures or even sponsor buying/selling by payment. They have money and they play with that money. There are familiar names in these groups. The informal "New Investor Group" is one among them.
I agree with the comments of many friends that market prices are determined by market forces - demand and supply. But, that happens in free market economy and free market atmosphere. In country like ours, where bottled water and surface transports are run by cartels and government officials patronize them and the leaders have pets in the form of dons; the market forces have limitations in their freedom to function. Hence, while looking at things, we have to differentiate between normal atmosphere and the polluted one and interpret accordingly. Therefore, sometimes here market forces work fairly free and in some other times market forces are just to free in an environment made ready by the clandestine cartels.
P. S.: The above text is my perception based on my experience of past several years. Hence, please take it in that light and not, in any way, as the conclusion of any empirical/quantitative/qualitative research.
Sunday, August 24, 2014
Best utilization of the darkness of night is "TO SLEEP WELL."
Rajesh Sharma
Below, I have posted one of my previous comments dated 16 Aug 2011, time 11:16 AM , when the market was at its nadir, the lowest level, index around 300.
"Let's share our perspectives and let's accept limitations of our access to information and analysis. Some people like the rose, some others orchid and others may like GULABAKKAVALI, a flower in folktales. Let them select their own flowers. No script is too good or too bad. Even if someone dares to buy NHPC at 42 RS who knows, he or she may double the amount in one year or may loose entire amount. The more the risk, the more the benefit could be there. SCB being a company with 2 Arab 87 Corer in its reserve is least risky. The high risk, high return type could go for NHPC and the low risk, low return type could buy SCB. There is everything in the market for all type.
Below, I have posted one of my previous comments dated 16 Aug 2011, time 11:16 AM , when the market was at its nadir, the lowest level, index around 300.
"Let's share our perspectives and let's accept limitations of our access to information and analysis. Some people like the rose, some others orchid and others may like GULABAKKAVALI, a flower in folktales. Let them select their own flowers. No script is too good or too bad. Even if someone dares to buy NHPC at 42 RS who knows, he or she may double the amount in one year or may loose entire amount. The more the risk, the more the benefit could be there. SCB being a company with 2 Arab 87 Corer in its reserve is least risky. The high risk, high return type could go for NHPC and the low risk, low return type could buy SCB. There is everything in the market for all type.
There are several factors to decide. We go our own way, and let's
neither try to dominate or allow somebody to dictate our intentions.
Moreover, how one of our seniors Voicerji (post no 217) could predict that the Index will go down to 200 and bull market will not be there for another 3 to 10 years?
Voicerji has said the following:
"Accumulate as much cash as you can, because the right time to buy stocks is yet to come. The lowest point, in my opinion should be 200. The maket is still bearish. Before reaching 200, the market will experience a few ups and downs because of political incidents, starting of CDS, rumors, etc. People are saying that CDS system will boost the market. But, I don't believe that. It might only increase the transaction voulme. But what we are looking for is increase in price, which will not happen. Let's try to accept the reality that the market is in bearish trend and for the next bull we might have to wait 3 to 10 years."
If any AIRE, GAIRE, NATTHU KHAIRE like me will say something like this, nobody will raise question thinking that that is simply rubbish. But when people like Keshav ji or Voicer ji or Deepa ji say such thing we take things seriously. If you seniors have no facts to support your conclusion, please, please restrain yourselves from making loaded statements. This is my humble request."
http://www.nepalsharemarket.com/jambforum/Default.aspx?postid=28070#28070
P.S.: May be, it has some relevance today. In 3 years time when Voicer ji had predicted, it could see another bull phase starting, if at all it would start at its earliest, now it is more than 3 times higher the index already. When there is darkness, we got nervous. This is human. But, at the end of night, there is morning. The best utilization of the darkness of night is "TO SLEEP WELL."
Moreover, how one of our seniors Voicerji (post no 217) could predict that the Index will go down to 200 and bull market will not be there for another 3 to 10 years?
Voicerji has said the following:
"Accumulate as much cash as you can, because the right time to buy stocks is yet to come. The lowest point, in my opinion should be 200. The maket is still bearish. Before reaching 200, the market will experience a few ups and downs because of political incidents, starting of CDS, rumors, etc. People are saying that CDS system will boost the market. But, I don't believe that. It might only increase the transaction voulme. But what we are looking for is increase in price, which will not happen. Let's try to accept the reality that the market is in bearish trend and for the next bull we might have to wait 3 to 10 years."
If any AIRE, GAIRE, NATTHU KHAIRE like me will say something like this, nobody will raise question thinking that that is simply rubbish. But when people like Keshav ji or Voicer ji or Deepa ji say such thing we take things seriously. If you seniors have no facts to support your conclusion, please, please restrain yourselves from making loaded statements. This is my humble request."
http://www.nepalsharemarket.com/jambforum/Default.aspx?postid=28070#28070
P.S.: May be, it has some relevance today. In 3 years time when Voicer ji had predicted, it could see another bull phase starting, if at all it would start at its earliest, now it is more than 3 times higher the index already. When there is darkness, we got nervous. This is human. But, at the end of night, there is morning. The best utilization of the darkness of night is "TO SLEEP WELL."
Saturday, August 23, 2014
BusinessAdvisory - 23 August 2014
Rajesh Sharma
The week starting tomorrow will be crucial week for the market to take its course. There are three probabilities - UP 50%, STABLE 30% and DOWN 20%. This is my opinion based on subjective qualitative assessment.
Broadly looking at sectors - Most BFIs: UP, Majority of Insurance, Micro-finance and Hydro power: STABLE or DOWN.
Companies of first choice: Mid cap commercial banks, small cap development banks and finance companies.
Most attractive 3 companies for investment: CHCL, EBL and NBB.
Most attractive 3 companies for trading: NCCB, SWBBL, HBDL.
The market movement: May go up.
Note: The market is too turbulent to make reasonable prediction. Therefore, please take the advice here, simply as reference.
The week starting tomorrow will be crucial week for the market to take its course. There are three probabilities - UP 50%, STABLE 30% and DOWN 20%. This is my opinion based on subjective qualitative assessment.
Broadly looking at sectors - Most BFIs: UP, Majority of Insurance, Micro-finance and Hydro power: STABLE or DOWN.
Companies of first choice: Mid cap commercial banks, small cap development banks and finance companies.
Most attractive 3 companies for investment: CHCL, EBL and NBB.
Most attractive 3 companies for trading: NCCB, SWBBL, HBDL.
The market movement: May go up.
Note: The market is too turbulent to make reasonable prediction. Therefore, please take the advice here, simply as reference.
Friday, August 22, 2014
New NRB Directive regarding limiting BFI's short term investment in Shares
Rajesh Sharma
New NRB Directive regarding limiting BFI's short term investment
in Shares
1. 1. In the beginning, the directive created lots of confusion about this
1%. Now it is clear that the regulator has kept intact the 30% limit of
the BFI's core capital for investment in share markets including in
"held for trading" (includes direct share purchase for short term
trading), "held for maturity" (such as bonds and Mutual funds) and
"available for sales" (buying shares for long term such as promoter shares that could be sold when the BFI has cash crunch). This 1% limit is for share purchase for short term within that 30%
2.
The directive discourages BFIs being major share
market investors as their primary role is banking. Rather than providing loans,
they seem interested in purchasing shares. This process must be discouraged. In
this background, the directive sounds good for long term. However, it fall down
from heaven as a surprise, in this context, it is suspicious.
3.
May be the central bank employees (doubling as
share market investors) finished their stocks of hydro-power and insurance
sector shares and are ready to grab shares from these sectors. After a year, by
allowing opportunity to grab as many shares as possible to its
investor-employees, the central bank may change its policy in this or that name
and could provide its employees doubling as investors a window to collect
unimaginable returns. If this happens, it would be a major policy level
corruption.
4.
The impact of NRB directive should be in limited
scale, if it was introduced in a transparent way giving enough time to be
prepared for such directive. But, when the regulator dropped as a bomb shell,
the market reacted in a nervous way, giving players to terrorize plenty of
weapons to grab shares by interpreting/misinterpreting the directives. May or
may not be so, in a falling market, introducing policy in hest could invite
"conspiracy theory."
5.
Nepal has become a paradise for anarchists and
ultras – be they in politics or economy; governance or judiciary; regulators or
autonomous bodies and an as well as many others. The same practice was
continued by NRB.
In conclusion, I found the policy
not harmful for the growth of the capital market on long term, but the way it
has been introduced brings several questions. And, if I conclude that NRB is in
hand-in-glove with the bad guys, who make the market turbulent, certainly, I do
not feel that I have overstated, nor many among the readers would feel so, I
hope.
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