Political uncertainty and perception of gloomy future have been considered the main reasons behind free fall in NEPSE index. Where the fall started, it created a strange phenomenon of fear among investors. Is the political situation so worse? Is the perception of gloomy future right?
1. The talk of new constitution has been irritating. Talks after talks, meeting after meetings and sitting after sitting have gone astray. Hence, this is frustrating. But, this failure of political leadership has limitations. Is it that sky will fall down if no constitution will be there in January or even July next year? No.
2. The politics of subjugation has many demerits. Bending body in front of a foreign leader is too bad. Renting conscience to occupy positions of power is too shameful. But, strange results have been seen in Nepal due to this factor. Decade long civil conflict has ended due to 12 point agreement as India wished so. In the same fashion, one fine morning if India wishes to end petty bickering in Nepal, there could be 'consensus' within hours. The decisions would be delivered from Delhi in fast food boxes, and the leaders of different names and faces would assemble the food items in packets and sell to us as their very own creation. Hence, being serious about differences among parties and leaders is too unrealistic.
3. There is no system break down; there is no anarchy at grassroots level where people live and work and maintain peace and harmony; and the financial institutions are functioning normally though a few cases of fraud and embezzlement are there.
4. Hence, the higher wattage given by media, experts and investors to political uncertainty particularly the holy cow called constitution is artificial. In reality, we do not have instability, yes there is some uncertainty and that is not that bad as it is perceived. And, the perception of gloomy future if constitution promulgation is delayed is nothing other than an imagery created by the investors themselves. This is not a realistic conclusion that we will be in dark days without a new constitution.
5. Finally, I believe, we have to come out of the cocoon made by self inflicting BIG players in the beginning and nurtured by ourselves thereafter. The market gets affected by government policies, its nature and image; however, focusing on a single factor for everything is the result of a tunnel vision. When, a good number of we investors will understand this reality, the market would start behaving normally. And, I think, the days are nearer, when many among us will understand this. Now, BT pressure has been over; CDS implementation sounds sure, banks have been providing loans at attractive interest rates and relative political stability is still there; only the major hurdle is mass psychology of fear among investors. This is time, we have to take moderate risk and use the opportunity provided by the lower market index.
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