My answer to a friend's questions sent in my mail box
It may be right, remittance could decrease and BOP deficit may increase. Both, decrease in number of outbound workers and lower oil price may decrease remittance. The dollar exchange rate may go up. Due to increase in consumption and need of construction materials for infrastructure, the import bill may go further up. However, we may not move to bad or worst economically.
The conventional interpretation of economy may not fully reflect the new situation. The paradigm has been shifted. The internal export through service sector, particularly tourism and other related hospitality businesses, expansion of agri-business and its contribution to employment and economy, and harnessing water resources for electricity generation, irrigation and drinking including processed water for drinking are some of the major activities going on in Nepal presently.
Politics has been freeing labor force each day. We could see several former Maoist fighters taking initiatives for production/cultivation/service activities. The more politics generates negative energy, the more workforce will start being engaged in value adding endeavors. The cadres at local level are different than what they were a few years back. Many among them are either outside of the country or in some type of value activities. It is still, perhaps, small number but is increasing day by day.
Politicians at the top are still a rotten lot but they are highly discredited and may lose their grip on power and new generation will have bigger say. Gradually, political stability could be a reality. Though, it may take time but the process has already begun. This will provide a launching pad for economic Bull Run. In that situation, decreased remittance may not stand as a valid negative factor.
However, it could be difficult for now and for a few years, if remittance decrease and BOP goes further negative. But, from long-term perspective, we have resources and we have basic ingredients and skills acquired through experiential learning or formal/informal education and so, our future is, I hope, bright.
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