I read posts from friends including that of Puru R. Chimouriya ji and Sanj Maharjan ji about immediate effects or long term impact of the earthquake on the market. Broadly, I agree with them.
I believe that for a few days or a few weeks, the market will see RED but not that much down. A few people may need cash to meet emergencies and will sell. But, many will hold. Hence, within a month or two, the share market will stabilize or even move up if NRN investment starts pouring in and NRB reschedules loan repayment taken as margin lending.
Sector-wise, no major impact would be there even in case of insurance sector. However, we are less educated to understand that the money to settle the claims comes, primarily from reinsurance companies and Insurance fund. Due to our investors' level of understanding and education, insurance sector may see some significant fall initially. Micro-finance also will have the similar fate. Even commercial banks and hydro-power companies also may see some fall initially. This will happen due to more psychological than real factors and will be corrected soon.
The rumor mongers and sadists are plenty in number in the market. Unethical business practices are regular phenomenon than exceptions. Hence, we should be better prepared to see such situation but we should hold tightly our share certificates - physical or materialized.
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