Saturday, February 28, 2015

Hydro-power companies vs BFIs

Rajesh Sharma

My comment on LI FA DA YAN ji's post about BFI's and hydro-power companies
In Nepal, hydro-power companies own hydro-power projects. The hydro-power mother companies are like Chilime, BPCL, AHPC etc. These companies get dividend from sister companies/subsidiaries/affiliated projects entities. Hence, buying shares of such companies is less risky than projects of 2 Megawatts or even 25 Megawatts. Therefore, I advise friends to invest in conglomerates such as above mentioned companies if you wish to take less risk compare to individual project companies or the subsidiaries of such conglomerates. However, individual project may do better and you may get higher profit also.
Now, coming to your question of investing in 2 MW/25 MW hydro projects as promoter, the lock up period is generally that of 6 years - about 3 years before IPO and another 3 year after IPO. One major benefit compared to banks, all its shares become ordinary shares after the locking period and market price will be better in comparison to BFIs.
However, always return depends on performance of a company/project.
There are 3 factors that help us building our portfolio - 1. our understanding of the core business of a company/sector, 2. growth prospect of the sector/company, and 3. our portfolio preference - diversification or concentration.
Hence, I advise you to reassess your situation and decide.
Just food for thought -
Banking institutions are better regulated and there is policy clarity. Hydro-power companies are relatively new entities and could be more vulnerable/might have better prospects, when policy framework becomes more complete.
If you have higher risk appetite, hydro-power companies are better. In any context, notwithstanding risk factor, hydro-power companies could be far better in regard to return, if you could hold for 3/4 years. If you just compare between promoter shares of BFIs and hydro-power companies, certainly hydro-power companies could be far better in 3/4 years holding period. For me, I have made a balanced portfolio mixing primarily BFIs and hydro-power companies.

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Nepse Index Calculation and NTC's impact

Rajesh Sharma

My reply to Santosh Raj Bajgain ji on his comment on my own post.
Santosh ji,
NEPSE has adopted value weighted method to calculate the index. In this method, market capitalization is very important factor. (See http://topicbin.blogspot.com/…/how-is-nepse-index-calculate… and http://202.11.2.113/SEBM/ronso/no9_4/10_CHHATKULI.pdf).
NTC's paid up capital is 15 Arab and its Market Capitalization is 94 Arab 20 corer at the share price of Rs 628. Out of about 100 Kharb total market capitalization, NTC has nearly 1 Kharb, means about 10%. A single company having 10% of market capitalization, it is huge. Hence, it has a big impact on overall index.
Other big companies may neutralize NTC's impact.
But, the index for individual investor is just something not real. Many times, when market nose dives, I stay in profit and sometimes, when market jumps, I stay bleeding. Therefore, my experience as an individual is that not on index, we should be putting our information, time, energy and resources on selecting and investing in companies.

Investment in BOOT hydropower projects

Rajesh Sharma

Many friends have asked about the future of their investment in BOOT projects.
Er. Santosh Kumar Shrestha has written quite useful and informative article, which has been published in the "Journal of Institute of Engineering". Also, that article is available on the web. Please go to: www.nepjol.info/index.php/JIE/article/download/5104/4240.
I think, the legal provisions for BOOT are not formulated specifically, but are governed by Companies Act 2006 (http://www.nepalmissiongeneva.org/…/i…/the-companies-act.pdf) and by Contract Act. However, friends from Law background could throw some light on this.

CHCL

Rajesh Sharma

One of my old posts regarding Chilime, may be useful to re-post in the context of falling Chilime profit. However, I still believe that the company would surmount current difficulties and take route to higher profit. Hence, there is no need of panicking. Energy Minister Radha Gyawali has been nearing political bankruptcy and that is good for any hydro-power company including Chilime. If KP Oli will try to protect her now or in future, he will be at great political loss. I do not see he will carry a political corpse on his shoulder. With this brief background, let me put below my note of 9 August 2012 posted on nepalsharemarket forum.
"Chilime is the "Flavor of the Month" now. However, over this company the ordinary shareholders have least control. Primarily, this is a government company. The ownership pattern is: 51% NEA (A GON Undertaking), 25% NEA/CHILIME employees, 10% locals and 14% general public. As the promoter is the governmental agency, no one could predict its future. One fine morning when the political thugs discover that there is plenty of money, they may start a "Lucknow Loot.” In my opinion, this is a good company for trading as it is shinning now, but risky for long-term investment. The small investors should be more informed as their primary defense against any risks are not money, rumors or trend, but information and education."
http://www.nepalsharemarket.com/jambforum/Default.aspx…

God and Teacher are different

Rajesh Sharma

God and Teacher are different
Warren Buffet is a great person, wonderful investor and a philanthropist of grade EXCELLENT. I respect him. However, we, small investors of an underdeveloped Nepali market, could hardly learn from him. The whole platform is different between US and Nepal. The power of money, capacity, wealth and knowledge between Buffet and us is beyond comparison. The time and rules of the game are different. Hence, respecting him and saluting him are okay but learning from him and following him are in question. We could better learn from small investors of India, perhaps.

NTC's floated capital

Rajesh Sharma

NTC's  floated capital
"The government of Nepal is set to launch the country’s largest ever initial public offering (IPO) next week when its sells 15 million shares in national PTO Nepal Telecom (NT), equivalent to a 10% stake in the company, for at least NPR9 billion (USD138.3 million). The state has set a minimum price of NPR600 per share, representing a face value of NPR100 and a premium of NPR500 per share. The IPO will last for 35 days and no individual or organisation will be allowed to buy more than 5,000 shares. The state-controlled operator has already sold 7.5 million shares, or 5% of the company, to employees."
https://www.telegeography.com/.../nepal-to-launch-nt-ipo.../.
Hence, total floated shares are 15 million + 7.5 million, which is total 225 Corer shares. The amount to be 2.25 corer X 100 = 2.25 Arab. This is about 15% (10% + 5%) of Telecom's total capital. Please friends, correct me, if I have made some calculation errors.
N. B. The applicants paid minimum Rs 600 in premium, means it is real paid is more than 9 Arab and the employees paid Rs 90 only per share, which 67 Corer. Therefore, money payment wise, this is the biggest IPO.

Rumor in the market

Rajesh Sharma

Yes, in Nepali market, rumor works as business strategy for trading. Unfortunate but true. But for investment, it has not much relevance.

A book on share market in Hindi

Rajesh Sharma

For friends, who might have difficulty in English, this could be an option. I have not seen this book in Nepali book stores, could be available in Delhi or could be ordered online, but from India only, perhaps.
Stock Market Mein Safal Hone Ke Tips
Author Ashu Dutt
ISBN 9789350832905
No. Of Pages 130
Edition 2013
Format Paperback
Language Hindi
Price 100
- See more at: http://www.booksforyou.co.in/…/Stock-Market-Mein-Safal-Hone…

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इस पुस्तक की विशेषताये:

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- निवेश में आम गलतियो से बचना सीखे
- अपने नुकसान को लाभ में बदले
- जब आप नुकसान उठा रहे हो तो उस पर नियंत्रण बनाये
- कुछ स्टॉक्स से ही भारी मुनाफा कमाये

वित्त्य मार्केट के गुरु आशु दत, जिन्हे शेर मार्केट का अतुलनिया ज्ञान है, उन्होने कई दशको की मेहनत के बाद यह ख्याति अर्जित की है।
- See more at: http://www.booksforyou.co.in/…/Stock-Market-Mein-Safal-Hone…
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Sponsored news, articles, comments and analysis in Nepali share market

Rajesh Sharma

Many Nepali web portals, blogs and discussion forums are full of sponsored news, articles, comments and analysis. Hence, if we lack the capacity of a flamingo (Raj Hans) that could differentiate milk from milk mixed water, we may suffer heavily. Therefore, we should enhance our ability to analyze critically.

Friday, February 20, 2015

NRB's probable policy intervention regarding MFIs' dividend

Rajesh Sharma

NRB's probable policy intervention regarding MFIs' dividend

Micro-finance companies are patronized entities and are getting cheap fund from the banks as per NRB policy arrangement. Hence, they have higher vulnerability.

The second important factor is that they provide mostly collateral free loan and this is a great strength of them. But this is a weakness too as the default cases may rise due to several local factors such as failed micro-enterprises, political thugs borrow the money and so and so.

Hence, those who put money in MFIs should have a higher risk absorption capacity.

Right now, not only in Nepal, also in other countries, the interest MFIs charge has become an issue of debate as it is quite high.

The supporters of MFIs' higher rate plead that the money lenders may charge even more. However, this logic sounds strange in two counts. 1. The money MFIs cater is a drop in the ocean of credit need of the poor. And, many people have to go to money lender anyway, if so. 2. The dividend they are distributing is higher than the outright commercial ventures and they get this money from the poor. Me, a well enough individual and promoters several times well off than me are rightful persons/companies to get the value added by the people (borrowers of MFIs) who are in much disadvantaged situation? This ethical dimension also needs to be addressed by the policy makers. Therefore, I think, we should see this phenomenon in larger perspective.

My comment on Sudip Ojha ji's post on Share Bazar Kurakani.