New optimism

Rajesh Sharma

After a long time, I had been to the broker house today. Watched transactions for some time. It was good to be there. A new sense of optimism was on the air. The crowd around sounded purposeful and active. The atmosphere there was assuring. May be, the weeks or months are not many, when Nepse index surpasses previous best of 1175.
Note: This is just my feeling and is not the output of any quantitative data or empirical research or qualitative assessment.

NBB

Rajesh Sharma

Sometimes, expectation and reality do not match. The same I felt about NBB. Its book close price was too low than what I had thought. However, it may create further opportunity for investors to buy in adjusted price.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/531177483586163/698273610209882/?notif_t=group_comment_reply

Grand Bank

Rajesh Sharma
This was suppressed by Sudhir Khatri & co. Now, it is free (though one more Khatri, Sudhir's brother?) is still in the board. The investor psychology is preventing its price to go up in a situation of today when ordinary companies are having better price. Though still risky a bit, this could be a winning horse on the long run.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/531177483586163/698273610209882/?notif_t=group_comment_reply

NTC

Rajesh Sharma

NTC hold garda ramro, kinbhane yesle FD bhanda better return dinchha. tara Bechda jhanai ramro, kinabhane tyo paisa ramara company ma lagauna painchha.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/stockofnepal/775121132508276/?comment_id=777982408888815&notif_t=like

Not about Share

Rajesh Sharma

Boys in general and a boy in particular could be different species. In general, boys could be idiots but they are essential idiots, Baritlla ji. Hence, I request you to opt for being hateful of boys selectively, and not generally. I respect your emotions, but keeping head cool is the foundation from where the pillars of peace of mind and happiness get erected.
https://www.facebook.com/?ref=tn_tnmn

NEPSE Discussion Forum, Let's keep it useful

Rajesh Sharma
Warning Signal:The  NEPSE discussion forum was and is a decent forum for last several months or a year or more. However, more recently, some friends have started to use it as other public forms are used. I request friends, let's keep the forum as useful as possible. Our attempt to promote a company or pull down a company may not have any effect other than our own 'sense of satisfaction'. It would not pay, rather it will degrade our status among friends.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/531177483586163/

Market: Unrealistic expectation of some buyers

Rajesh Sharma

For the last few days, I am reading posts on several discussion forums and watching NEPSE going down. It is interesting to know prediction of NEPSE reaching low point, below 800. Several posts are appearing putting Blue chips in negative way. With different name, people are questioning current price of several companies. The optimists are in minority and are defensive and the pessimists are in all out offensive. Translating such phenomenon, I have concluded that the 'pessimists' are trying their level best to pull the market further down, buy shares as much as they can and reap the bumper harvest. Too much greed never pays and this time too it sounds their days are over. Most probably, yesterday was the last day of this aggressive correction and if not certainly this could be today. The market is in over all bull phase and a correction is not the start of a bear phase. The pessimists' celebration mood sounds too premature.

Smelling rumors early

Rajesh Sharma

In the past, I was aware about concerted, preplanned and BIG scale rumor, its effect and its use as a tactic and part of a strategy. But, I was unaware to smell such rumor in the market as early as possible.

Now, I follow a few share portals and newspapers as well as journals to sense smell of such rumors as early as possible. When a portal/newspaper/journal starts sensitizing investors as loudly as possible,  using words such as "undervalued", "overvalued", "bonus/right shares"  and "merger", I get some alarm signals of probable bobby trap. Hence, I examine the probability of that particular issue of that particular company. If there is not much possibility of such outcomes, I consider this as early signal of a rumor.

Differentiating probability from rumor is difficult but not impossible. We should see the fundamentals of the company, its general course as well as direction and credibility of the source of that particular information/disinformation, we could very much understand the reality to a large extent. Knowing reality as early as possible and making plans accordingly, could be much more beneficial.

I am not referring rumors spread by small time rumor mongers appearing on the discussion forums but, here I have been talking about BIG rumor planners, producers and seller of rumor.

Two campanies: I bought/will buy shares of.

Rajesh Sharma

Many friends have continuously asking me about the two companies I am intending to buy shares. Out of those two, I bought shares of one company in 19th June. I will buy the next one tomorrow. I may share this info through chat messages. If some friends are seriously interested to know it, please send message through chat message box. Thank you

Selecting a company to invest

Rajesh Sharma

My request to friends: I like to add one company in my portfolio or add shares of companies I already have. Which company do you suggest?

(I got more than 35 responses. https://www.facebook.com/groups/531177483586163/694837330553510/?comment_id=694842590552984&notif_t=like)

I thank you all friends for offering valuable suggestions. I had short listed two companies. My number one company did not appear here in your suggestions. My number two company appeared couple of times. Hence, I decided to make 50-50. I will buy shares of both and see what would be the difference. Though adding one more company would be a bit more burden, it sounds that it has its worth to do so. (I prefer to have shares of 7 to 9 companies at a time. I believe in keeping my feet inside my rug.)

https://www.facebook.com/groups/531177483586163/694837330553510/?comment_id=694842590552984&notif_t=like

Profit booking

Rajesh Sharma

The recent downward trend seen in the market is profit booking and minor correction in banking. I believe that banking will move up quite soon. Hence, if you have some loss in paper, do not worry. You will not be in loss after a couple of weeks from now. Prediction in market is very hard. However, I have not seen any good reason that will make banking down. It will be up.

Recent Increase in Nepse: Is it sustainable?

Rajesh Sharma

For the last few days, many friends have been asking me a question: Is rapid rise in Nepse sustainable?
Please read the movement of the index during the last one year. The first half had witnessed phenomenal increase (64.31%); it not only survived but flourished also. Then some 15.55% increase in the last six months may not be unsustainable at all. The annualized increase is 89.88%, which is impressive but largely due to the increase during the first 6 months.
Please read the data presented below. Sources primarily include Nepse website for index data, rest is calculation.
Nepse 18 June 2013: 491.01
Nepse 18December 2013: 806.82
Nepse 18 June 2014: 932.33
Change in points/percentage: From June 18, 2013 to December 18, 2013: 315.81/64.31%
Change in points/percentage: From December 18, 2013 to June 18, 2014 to:125.51/15.55%
Change in points/percentage: From June 18, 2013 to June 18, 2014 to: 441.32/89.88%

https://www.facebook.com/groups/531177483586163/694866603883916/?notif_t=like

Nepali share market and trader's domination

Rajesh Sharma

The Nepali share market sounds under the grip of traders. Due to the strong influence of traders, the market behaves many times as the roller coaster. Rumor is used most frequently as effective tactic. Rumors about bonus shares, rights shares and merger are the instruments to warm the rumor mill.

New Blog

Friends,
This is my new blog. From now on, I will write/post on this blog frequently. I may use my old blog: www.sharenepalcomments.wordpress.com less frequently as that has become a bit slow.
Rajesh Sharma